Latest Developments

Europe
BBC Business

AI boom could trigger market shocks, Bank of England boss warns

Artificial intelligence (AI) could trigger financial market shocks and the UK needs to be prepared for them, the governor of the Bank of England has warned. Andrew Bailey said the central bank is watching the huge amounts of money being invested in AI "very carefully" and cautioned that "not everybody always wins". The money that has been spent on and loaned to AI firms over the last few years in the hope of large returns is causing markets to value some of them as multi-trillion dollar businesses. Asked if he believed an AI bubble could burst, Bailey said: "You could see some correction of asset prices at some point." He was speaking exclusively to the BBC about what the risks and benefits of AI could be for the UK economy. Bailey said he believed the technology has "great potential to strengthen growth in our economies", adding that this was something the country needed. "But it also brings with it substantial risks and so we have to be on top of both of those." AI chipmaker Nvidia is currently the world's most valuable listed company, with a market valuation of $5.5tn (£4.14tn), thanks largely to investors who believe in the big profits AI could create. Meanwhile, tech giants Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on the technology. And two of the largest AI companies in the world – Anthropic and OpenAI – are also preparing to sell shares in their firms on the US stock market in moves which many believe will lead to hundreds of billions of dollars more flowing into the industry. "There is a large, very large, amount of investment going into this sector now, and of course that's natural because it's a major area of growth," said Bailey. "And of course you see that the asset prices of the companies that are developing it have gone up a lot and that reflects the fact that there are high expectations of what it can deliver."

AI boom could trigger market shocks, Bank of England boss warns
Europe
The Guardian

As the US midterms approach, Trump’s boasts on the economy fall flat with voters

Donald Trump at the UN headquarters on 22 September in New York. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesView image in fullscreenDonald Trump at the UN headquarters on 22 September in New York. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesUS economyAs the US midterms approach, Trump’s boasts on the economy fall flat with votersTrump’s tariffs and his war against Iran caused prices to rise, but the US president continues to claim it’s ‘the greatest economy in history’ Steven GreenhouseMon 28 Sep 2026 07.00 EDTLast modified on Mon 28 Sep 2026 13.03 EDTSharePrefer the Guardian on GoogleDonald Trump has taken to repeating a familiar boast: “We have the greatest economy in history,” Trump said recently at a White House press gaggle. The boast comes even though inflation is higher and economic growth lower than when Joe Biden left office, even though gas prices have jumped about 50% since the war against Iran started, and even though 73% of Americans think the economy is in fair or poor shape (48% say it’s in poor shape). What’s more, the Federal Reserve is so worried about inflation that it just raised interest rates. “It’s bluster, it’s gaslighting for him to say the economy is the greatest ever,” said Darrick Hamilton, chief economist for the AFL-CIO, the nation’s main union federation. “The economy is trending down by many measures. A lot of that has been caused by Trump’s unforced errors.” Hamilton said those errors include Trump’s tariffs and his war against Iran, both of which have pushed up prices – inflation is running at 3.4%, up from 3.0% when Biden left office. One unfortunate result is that prices have been rising faster than wages, worsening Americans’ affordability problems. A New York Times/Siena Poll found that 71% of voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the cost of living. Over the past 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, fuel oil prices have soared 52%, while ground beef is up 7.2%, fish and seafood up 6.5%, coffee 6.1%, sugar and sweets 6.1% and electricity up 3.8%. The administration boasts that egg prices are down 23%, even as gas has soared to an average of $4.47 per gallon nationwide. With the economy growing at a modest 1.5% rate in the second quarter, Trump stretches the truth when he boasts of a great economy, considering that under John F Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson and Ronald Reagan, there were full years when GDP growth – the broadest measure of the nation’s economy – averaged over 6%. (The economy grew at a 2.7% annual rate during Biden’s last six months in office.) Consumer sentiment has slid sharply in light of today’s stubborn inflation, mixed with slower economic growth, high interest rates and huge economic uncertainty about trade wars and AI. According to a University of Michigan poll, consumer sentiment fell in September to its second lowest level ever in the poll’s 74-year history. Only this past May was lower. Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said: “President Trump has always been clear about temporary disruptions as a result of the Iran conflict, but the Trump administration has remained laser-focused delivering on the president’s long-term economic agenda on the home front.” As good news, Desai cited “continued private-sector job growth” and “booming investments”. The unemployment rate has been fairly low during Trump’s second term – at 4.1%, it’s about the same rate as in Biden’s last year. But the jobless rate has been lower under several previous presidents; it sank to 2.5 % at one point under Dwight Eisenhower and below 4% at times under Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon and Johnson. But in a not-so-great statistic, job growth has been mediocre since Trump returned to office – just 43,000 a month on average, less than one-third the 145,000 average during Biden’s last two years in office. Although Trump said his tariffs were aimed at revving up manufacturing, the US has lost 35,000 factory jobs since he returned to office. Last month, however, there was good news on job growth – the nation added an impressive 162,000 jobs. Desai said the Biden administration “padded employment growth” by “adding hundreds of thousands of government or government-adjacent jobs that relied on runaway federal spending”. He added, “President Trump is slashing regulations and taxes to create sustainable private-sector jobs – not juking the statistics by drumming up government spending.” Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right thinktank, had an upbeat view, saying: “The economy is strong.” Strain added, “the unemployment rate is very low,” and “the economy is very resilient in the face of high energy prices, and consumers are resilient in the face of the trade war.” He noted that “investment spending is very strong”.

As the US midterms approach, Trump’s boasts on the economy fall flat with voters
Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

Iran oil minister resigns, replaced by top executive amid US blockade on Tehran’s exports

Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad has resigned from his post, with the National Iranian Oil Company chief stepping in as his temporary replacement as the United States continues to enforce a strict naval blockade on Tehran's petroleum shipments. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accepted the resignation and appointed NIOC head Hamid Bovard as acting oil minister, according to a statement broadcast by state media outlet IRIB. State television broadcast an interview with a spokesperson from the Iranian presidential office, who explained that Paknejad had previously offered to step down "due to personal issues," though his initial departure request was declined. Pezeshkian initially urged the minister to stay on duty, but ultimately approved the resignation after Paknejad maintained his stance. The president subsequently "commended his efforts and sincere service" following the departure. The Strait of Hormuz has turned into a major flashpoint during the ongoing Middle East war. Prior to strikes carried out by the United States and Israel against Iran in late February, the vital maritime corridor managed 20 per cent of worldwide crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. In response to Tehran restricting commercial shipping traffic and firing upon vessels deemed to have made unauthorised passages, Washington instituted a counterblockade targeting Iranian ports to halt petroleum exports. The economic strain caused by American measures previously led to lengthy queues forming outside petrol stations across Tehran and various other Iranian cities. Depriving Iran of its oil income remains a core objective of the economic strategy pursued by Washington. The US Treasury revealed fresh sanctions on Friday aimed at Iran's automotive and rail industries under the framework of the "Operation Economic Outcast" campaign. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that these restrictions are designed to further diminish Tehran's financial capacity to sustain the war, noting that Washington is actively working to "drain the regime's revenue once and for all." Bessent added that American pressure targets remaining streams of petroleum income, while the administration maintains that naval blockades and sanctions seek to obstruct crude sales and foreign currency access. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump remarked on Saturday that petroleum prices are declining and asserted that Iran has "virtually given up" ambitions for developing a nuclear weapon, as hostilities reach their eighth month.The intense economic campaign spearheaded by the Trump administration has placed Iran's energy sector at the heart of the war, heightening the impact of Paknejad's departure as Tehran attempts to maintain its vital petroleum revenues. Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments. We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.

Iran oil minister resigns, replaced by top executive amid US blockade on Tehran’s exports
Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

Zinc futures: Hold the longs

Zinc futures has gained so far this week as it rebounded from an important support. While the broader trend is bullish, the price action has started showing some weakness in the uptrend. The October futures bounced off the support at ₹408 early this week. Subsequent support is at ₹400. On Thursday though, it rose to hit a high of ₹429.85 before moderating to the current level of ₹418. That said, the trend has not turned bearish. As long as the support at ₹400 holds, the bulls will have an edge. Hence, there is a good chance for zinc futures to resume the rally, surpass ₹430 and touch ₹435. Resistance above ₹435 is at ₹440. On the other hand, if zinc futures falls from the current level and breaches the support at ₹400, it can turn the outlook weak. This can potentially trigger a fall to ₹385. Last week, we suggested buying zinc (Oct) futures at ₹410. Hold on to the trade. Retain stop-loss at ₹395. When the contract rises to ₹430, tighten the stop-loss to ₹420. Book profits at ₹435. Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments. We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.

Zinc futures: Hold the longs
Europe
BBC Business

Energy bills are going up - here's what you can do about it

Energy prices have now risen by nearly 4%, with forecasts of a much bigger jump to come in January. Regulator Ofgem's price cap affects about 20 million households in England, Scotland and Wales and sets a maximum price for each unit of gas and electricity. Forecasters have suggested a 16% increase is possible in January, due to high wholesale prices paid by suppliers as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. While that's beyond consumers' control, charities say the government should offer more support - beyond a VAT cut on electricity bills which takes effect on Thursday - and households should reset for winter again. That includes reading the meter now, and taking other steps to keep a check on rising bills. The energy regulator, Ofgem, is advising people to consider fixing - so that the price you are charged per unit of gas or electricity does not change every three months, although the total bill will still vary depending on how much energy you use. The trouble is that it is very difficult to work out whether a fixed deal is a good deal at the moment. Should energy prices rise sharply, then those who have fixed already have the certainty of what they will pay for each unit of energy. That price may well be lower than the forecast price in January. However, if events in the Gulf region settle down, and a peace deal in the Iran war leads to lower international gas prices, then a longer-term fix might not seem such good value compared with the price cap. So consumer group Which? also recommends keeping an eye on any exit fees when picking a fixed deal. If variable prices fall below your fixed rate and you want to get out of it before the end of your agreement period, you may have to pay a hefty sum. Before you fix, consumer website MoneySavingExpert advises you look at all the deals available, not just what your own supplier is offering. Ofgem says about five million people still pay their bill when it arrives every three months. For some that's because they do not want their supplier to estimate their usage in case they are overcharged.

Energy bills are going up - here's what you can do about it
Europe
BBC Business

Travelodge failed sex assault victim 'at every stage'

A woman who was sexually assaulted by a man given a key to her hotel room was "fundamentally failed" by Travelodge "at every stage", an independent review has found. Barrister Paul Greaney KC said the chain's security policies at the time of the attack at its Maidenhead hotel in December 2022 were "not fit for the purpose of keeping guests safe". He found guests were still not as safe as they should be, with room intrusions reported at nearly one-in-10 Travelodge hotels this summer, and no policy in place on violence against women and girls. Travelodge apologised "unreservedly" to the woman. The review did credit the company with making changes since March. Kyran Smith, who obtained the key by falsely claiming to be the woman's boyfriend, was jailed for seven-and-a-half years in January. The review found he was handed the key less than three minutes after approaching the reception desk, by a receptionist who had received no training in key security. Greaney said blame rested with Travelodge as an organisation rather than with individual staff, and a culture had developed in which room intrusions were regarded as "one of those things". The woman emailed a complaint to Travelodge in January 2023, addressed to chief executive Jo Boydell and others. The review concluded the email was handled by her office without her knowledge, and did not come to Boydell's attention until March 2026. The woman's complaint was instead investigated by a manager who was himself criticised in it, and the customer services team offered her a refund for her night's stay, which she understood to be £30. Boydell stepped down as chief executive in August following criticism over the company's handling of safety complaints. The review said she deserved credit for driving improvements from March. The attack became national news in March after the woman contacted the BBC, saying the case raised serious questions about room security at Travelodge hotels.

Travelodge failed sex assault victim 'at every stage'
Europe
BBC Business

Employers should teach primary-age children about work, says Milburn

Image source, Getty ImagesByHannah KarpelPublished30 September 2026Updated 4 hours agoChildren should be introduced to the world of work at the start of primary school, says the author of a major report into youth activity in the UK. Former minister Alan Milburn says children as young as four should be learning about different careers, with work experience placements made mandatory for 14- to 16-year-olds. However, teaching unions warn of the "significant pressure" already facing primary schools and say practical considerations must ensure all schools have access to the support. The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests 981,000 people aged 16 to 24 in the UK were not in education, employment or training (known as Neet), between April and June 2026. Milburn told the BBC "in primary school, it's really about opening their eyes and giving them a sense about what is possible". Despite a push towards apprenticeships and work experience in Years 10 and 11, for many the journey towards becoming Neet starts well before their 16th birthday. As a result, Milburn says children should be introduced to the world of work much earlier in their school journey, with dedicated space in the curriculum to "broaden horizons". He told the BBC this could be achieved by employers giving talks in primary schools and offering taster sessions to children. "It'd be good if employers came into schools and said, 'Look, this is what's going on, these are things that are possible.'" Milburn says that for Key Stage 4 pupils - aged between 14 and 16 - experience must be given in a real workplace with employer feedback. "Work experience needs to be mandatory. It makes a big difference," he told the BBC. Milburn also emphasised the difficulty some young people face when trying to find work experience placements.

Employers should teach primary-age children about work, says Milburn
Europe
The Guardian

Anthropic ‘warns of existential AI risks to humanity’ in IPO document

Reuters reported that approximately 80 pages of the 261-page main body of the Anthropic prospectus were devoted to laying out risk factors. Photograph: Carlos Barría/ReutersView image in fullscreenReuters reported that approximately 80 pages of the 261-page main body of the Anthropic prospectus were devoted to laying out risk factors. Photograph: Carlos Barría/ReutersAnthropicAnthropic ‘warns of existential AI risks to humanity’ in IPO documentReported admission to investors of AI’s ‘self-preserving behaviours’ comes as company prepares for a potential $2tn flotation Anthropic is telling investors that advanced AI could pose “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity”, according to reports, as it prepares for a potential $2tn (£1.5tn) flotation. The warning inside the startup’s IPO prospectus, which has yet to be made public, was reported by Reuters and the Financial Times. It follows the company’s call for a slowdown in breakneck development of the technology – a warning echoed by rivals. The prospectus – a document outlining a company’s finances, growth plans and risk profile ahead of a share listing – is said to warn that AI models could exhibit “self-preserving behaviours”, including attempts to “resist shutdown”, to “conceal or manipulate information” and behaviour “resembling blackmail”. “Our development of highly advanced models, platforms, and applications and expansion of use cases could further ⁠increase the risk that our models cause harm,” the developer of the Claude chatbot reportedly said, adding the potential for a model to be aware it was being tested created a “significant limitation” on Anthropic’s ability to assess model safety. Companies preparing to go public routinely report on risks ranging from safety issues to regulatory concerns but warnings about a product causing human extinction reflect heightened concern about such a consequential technology. The reported prospectus admission follows a surge in debate about the existential risk question, triggered this month when an Anthropic researcher, Jacob Coxon, resigned warning that people building AI “earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade”. A senior safety researcher at Anthropic then posted their agreement on X, claiming there was a more than 10% chance it “could kill all humans” within the next decade. Days later, Anthropic’s chief executive, Dario Amodei, said the industry “must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models”. Some experts have criticised the existential risk warnings, saying they are unverifiable and unscientific. However, there are growing examples of unsanctioned behaviour by the technology, including OpenAI agents – autonomous systems that carry out sequences of tasks without human intervention – hacking dozens of third-party organisations including the AI startup Hugging Face and Australia’s universal healthcare system. OpenAI announced on Monday it had cancelled the release of its newest model because of safety concerns. It said the GPT-6.1 Astra model showed higher levels of deception and performed poorly on tests for alignment, the term for ensuring a model adheres to human values and goals. Reuters reported that approximately 80 pages of the 261-page main body of the Anthropic prospectus were devoted to laying out risk factors, compared with 48 pages to describe its business. Anthropic is reportedly seeking a valuation of more than $2tn, compared with the $1.8tn achieved by Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

Anthropic ‘warns of existential AI risks to humanity’ in IPO document
North America
CNBC Economy

Here's what happens to the economy when Treasury yields soar like they are now

Soaring Treasury yields aren't just bad for the government and its $40 trillion debt. They also threaten to raise borrowing costs, hitting everyone from homeowners to credit card users, while providing limited help to savers and potential benefits to banks. Government debt costs leaped higher Wednesday, the product of multiple factors including a fresh report showing higher inflation pressures, surging expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, and an auction for 5-year notes showing that Treasury demand was weak. Competition from hyperscaler debt issuance also is seen as an aggravating factor. Yields responded by jumping more than they have in nearly a year and a half, dating back to April 2025 when President Donald Trump first announced so-called reciprocal tariffs against U.S. trading partners. Recent market liquidity efforts pushed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have had no impact so far, with rates surging higher despite intensified buyback efforts on longer-dated debt. The 10-year note, a benchmark for mortgages and other longer-term borrowing, saw its yield hit, 5.125%, a level not seen since prior to the global financial crisis. Similarly, the 2-year note, which typically responds to Fed rate expectations and signals rates for home equity, auto loans and other debt, climbed more than 13 basis points past 4.9% as traders priced in a strong possibility that the central bank would follow its hike last week with another in October. Such moves generally portend higher borrowing rates that hit the U.S. economy where it hurts the most — consumers, who drive nearly 70% of all economic activity and hold nearly $19 trillion in total debt. While savers will benefit with incrementally higher rates on their bank savings accounts, it's unlikely to offset the pain they'll feel elsewhere, said Dan North, senior economist with Allianz Trade North America. "The consumer's the most important part of the economy," North said. "They're going from little tiny yields on savings to ever slightly bigger tiny yields on savings. So I don't think that really yet helps the consumer that much. But it sure does crush housing, and it [impacts] on all those personal consumer loans, the credit cards and so forth." Indeed, the interest rate on plain-vanilla savings accounts is around 0.37% and has been on a modest decline since the Fed enacted three quarter-point cuts late in 2025, according to FDIC data. Mortgage rates, though, have been on an entirely different trajectory and are likely to continue rising. A typical 30-year mortgage is now at 7.26%, up more than a quarter percentage point in just the past couple weeks and nearly a full point over the past year, according to Mortgage News Daily. Credit card interest rates have been fairly steady over the past few years, but also are unlikely to stay that way if current trends hold up. When the Fed hikes, it feeds directly into the prime rate, which is used as a baseline for adjustable-rate credit and most recently was at 7%, after rising a quarter point off last week's Fed move. Taken together, the factors make it more expensive for consumers to borrow and less likely that they'll seek the loans and credit that fuel a lot of the activity in the $32 trillion U.S. economy.

Here's what happens to the economy when Treasury yields soar like they are now