As the US midterms approach, Trump’s boasts on the economy fall flat with voters

Donald Trump at the UN headquarters on 22 September in New York. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesView image in fullscreenDonald Trump at the UN headquarters on 22 September in New York. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesUS economyAs the US midterms approach, Trump’s boasts on the economy fall flat with votersTrump’s tariffs and his war against Iran caused prices to rise, but the US president continues to claim it’s ‘the greatest economy in history’

Steven GreenhouseMon 28 Sep 2026 07.00 EDTLast modified on Mon 28 Sep 2026 13.03 EDTSharePrefer the Guardian on GoogleDonald Trump has taken to repeating a familiar boast: “We have the greatest economy in history,” Trump said recently at a White House press gaggle. The boast comes even though inflation is higher and economic growth lower than when Joe Biden left office, even though gas prices have jumped about 50% since the war against Iran started, and even though 73% of Americans think the economy is in fair or poor shape (48% say it’s in poor shape). What’s more, the Federal Reserve is so worried about inflation that it just raised interest rates.

“It’s bluster, it’s gaslighting for him to say the economy is the greatest ever,” said Darrick Hamilton, chief economist for the AFL-CIO, the nation’s main union federation. “The economy is trending down by many measures. A lot of that has been caused by Trump’s unforced errors.”

Hamilton said those errors include Trump’s tariffs and his war against Iran, both of which have pushed up prices – inflation is running at 3.4%, up from 3.0% when Biden left office. One unfortunate result is that prices have been rising faster than wages, worsening Americans’ affordability problems. A New York Times/Siena Poll found that 71% of voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the cost of living.

Over the past 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, fuel oil prices have soared 52%, while ground beef is up 7.2%, fish and seafood up 6.5%, coffee 6.1%, sugar and sweets 6.1% and electricity up 3.8%. The administration boasts that egg prices are down 23%, even as gas has soared to an average of $4.47 per gallon nationwide.

With the economy growing at a modest 1.5% rate in the second quarter, Trump stretches the truth when he boasts of a great economy, considering that under John F Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson and Ronald Reagan, there were full years when GDP growth – the broadest measure of the nation’s economy – averaged over 6%. (The economy grew at a 2.7% annual rate during Biden’s last six months in office.)

Consumer sentiment has slid sharply in light of today’s stubborn inflation, mixed with slower economic growth, high interest rates and huge economic uncertainty about trade wars and AI. According to a University of Michigan poll, consumer sentiment fell in September to its second lowest level ever in the poll’s 74-year history. Only this past May was lower.

Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said: “President Trump has always been clear about temporary disruptions as a result of the Iran conflict, but the Trump administration has remained laser-focused delivering on the president’s long-term economic agenda on the home front.” As good news, Desai cited “continued private-sector job growth” and “booming investments”.

The unemployment rate has been fairly low during Trump’s second term – at 4.1%, it’s about the same rate as in Biden’s last year. But the jobless rate has been lower under several previous presidents; it sank to 2.5 % at one point under Dwight Eisenhower and below 4% at times under Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon and Johnson. But in a not-so-great statistic, job growth has been mediocre since Trump returned to office – just 43,000 a month on average, less than one-third the 145,000 average during Biden’s last two years in office.

Although Trump said his tariffs were aimed at revving up manufacturing, the US has lost 35,000 factory jobs since he returned to office. Last month, however, there was good news on job growth – the nation added an impressive 162,000 jobs.

Desai said the Biden administration “padded employment growth” by “adding hundreds of thousands of government or government-adjacent jobs that relied on runaway federal spending”. He added, “President Trump is slashing regulations and taxes to create sustainable private-sector jobs – not juking the statistics by drumming up government spending.”

Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right thinktank, had an upbeat view, saying: “The economy is strong.” Strain added, “the unemployment rate is very low,” and “the economy is very resilient in the face of high energy prices, and consumers are resilient in the face of the trade war.” He noted that “investment spending is very strong”.