Why investors will likely ignore the $81 billion hole that Anthropic must dig itself out of

Can Anthropic generate revenues so gigantic that they far outpace the huge spending on compute that its leaders acknowledge is coming? So far, the S-1 shows surprisingly excellent bedrock performance, Fortune’s Shawn Tully reports.

Revenues exploded 13x from $1.3 billion to $16.3 billion in H1 2026, over the same period last year. But the company’s income statement shows a staggering loss of $80.7 billion. The vast bulk of that deficit arose from changes in the “fair value” of convertible notes and other non-cash charges.

Here’s a visualization of that (below). Anthropic’s quarterly revenues (blue) are growing and keeping pace with its operating expenses (red). But its GAAP net income (yellow) shows steep losses increasing over time. However, if you back out the non-cash charges for the changing value of convertible notes, then Anthropic’s net income losses (green) look manageable. In fact, the company actually garnered adjusted operating income of $1.6 billion for the first six months of 2026, for a 9%+ margin.

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AI is dividing companies into haves and have-nots. And the haves are the tech companies, according to Apollo Global Management’s Torsten Sløk. “Despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech,” he said in a recent blog.

“Revenue per worker is rising for the Mag 7 but is flat for the S&P 493,” he wrote. “Profit margins are rising for the Mag 7 but are flat for the S&P 493.” The same effect—or lack thereof—shows up when you look at productivity, too.

A couple of macro reasons explain why AI's positive effects are conspicuous by their absence in non-tech companies. Corporate investment in AI is actually crowding out investment elsewhere in the economy, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen:

Stock markets were mixed globally this morning. Asia had a good day, with the exception of China’s CSI 300, which fell more than a full point. Europe, which is heavily dependent on energy imports, declined in early trading after the price of Brent crude oil rose to $117 per barrel and settled later at $116.

In the U.S., futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up marginally after the main index rose yesterday. Tech stocks were largely buoyed by the appearance of Anthropic’s IPO filing, which largely calmed fears that AI frontier labs—and the ecosystem they have created around them—might be unable to operate sustainably.