Bay system may open two-week rain window across Central India

Both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are helping breed active thunderstorms (in red and blood red) over the South Peninsula and eastern parts of Central India ahead of revival of monsoon next week. | Photo Credit: www.meteologix.com/in

The monsoon is poised for a fresh advance next week, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating favourable conditions for its further progression into parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and Chhattisgarh around Tuesday next.

The expected revival is likely to be driven by development of a cyclonic circulation over the north-west Bay of Bengal off the Odisha-West Bengal coast. While some global weather models project its evolution into a low-pressure area, IMD’s guidance remains more conservative, suggesting only a weak circulation at this stage.

Even so, model consensus points to strengthening monsoon flows from the Bay into Central India. A leading US model tracks the system westward from Odisha and West Bengal across Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh towards Konkan, Mumbai and South Gujarat, a path that is also supported by projected rainfall patterns.

IMD’s numerical guidance shows moisture-laden easterlies turning inland from the Bay and feeding into Central India, although it does not yet conclusively support the formation of a well-defined low-pressure area. The agency, however, has not ruled out the possibility of a weak ‘low’ developing towards the end of June.

Adding to the signal, the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Weather Service indicates the potential emergence of another circulation over the same region around July 1. Together, the forecasts suggest a favourable two-week period for monsoon activity over Central India.

Ahead of the revival, isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast over Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and West Madhya Pradesh for six days beginning Saturday. Along the west coast, rainfall activity is expected to strengthen from Monday, with fairly widespread to widespread rain over Konkan and Goa, including Mumbai, for four days. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered showers are likely over Saurashtra and Kutch for two days; and over East Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada during next six days.

In the south, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is forecast over Kerala, Mahe and Lakshadweep from Saturday, extending to Coastal Karnataka from Sunday. Rainfall will also increase intermittently over Interior Karnataka and parts of Andhra Pradesh later in the week .Heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal this weekend; Kerala and Mahe for three days; Lakshadweep on Sunday; Coastal Karnataka for five days from Sunday; and Interior Karnataka on Monday and Tuesday.

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