Vegetables to get smaller and more expensive due to hot weather, farmers warn

Image source, Getty ImagesByAlex Daniel, Business reporter and Esme Stallard, Senior climate and science reporterPublished3 hours agoThis year's harvest could be the worst on record as farmers warn the exceptionally dry spring and summer could lead to "shrinkflation" in UK supermarkets.

England and Wales saw their driest July since records began 190 years ago, according to the Met Office, and a drought has been declared across large parts of the country.

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank said the UK's cereals and oilseed harvest could be 2.5 million tonnes less than ​earlier forecasts.

Tim O'Malley, the chairman of Nationwide produce, said it was "as bad as its ever been" and that shoppers will likely see higher prices or smaller vegetables in supermarkets.

The harvest of barley, oats and rapeseed, which are used in beer, breakfast cereals and vegetable oil, is estimated to drop to just 19.5 million tonnes, the worst since records began in 1984.

That is compared with a previous low of 19.8 million tonnes in 2020, and would cost farmers £390m in lost revenue, the ECIU estimated.

The crops are also used for feeding livestock, making them crucial across most of the food chain.

O'Malley said consumers could feel the impact in the vegetable aisle too, where grocers are likely to swap in smaller produce at the same price, which is known as shrinkflation.

"I think we're going to see shrinkflation," he told Radio 5 Live's Wake Up to Money.

"The problem we're going to have this year is a massive reduction in yield and major quality issues," O'Malley said.

"We've got crop with stress or we've got quality issues. So you will see a smaller crop," O'Malley said.

He said supermarkets will "do everything" to keep prices where they are, but added: "eventually they will probably have to come to the party and increase the price, particularly if they start importing."