Hyundai expected to outsell Ford in third quarter as Detroit automakers lack hybrids

DETROIT — Hyundai Motor is expected to outsell Ford Motor in quarterly sales for the first time ever, according to a new forecast released Thursday by Cox Automotive.

The South Korean automaker is expected to report a 6.5% increase in year-over-year sales from July through September to 511,421 units. That compares with an expected 7.1% decline for Ford over the third quarter to 504,172 new vehicles sold, according to Cox predictions.

The expected leaderboard change would make Hyundai the third best-selling automaker in the U.S. behind General Motors and Toyota Motor.

That change comes as new vehicle sales have been stronger than expected this year. Cox on Thursday raised its 2026 forecast by roughly 2%, to 16.1 million units.

"The automotive market this year has been pretty resilient," Jeremy Robb, Cox chief economist, said Thursday during a media call. "New and used sales are both down year over year, but they're not down really that much."

In response to the forecast, Ford said it continues to outsell Hyundai through August.

The Detroit automaker also took the opportunity to say that the forecast "does highlight the rapid growth of vehicles imported from Korea – by companies like Hyundai, Kia and GM," which has notably increased its U.S. vehicle sales from South Korean plants this decade.

"Currently, due to tariffs, currency, labor costs and supply chains, it is very advantageous to build in Korea versus building in the U.S. -- which Ford does more than any automaker," Ford said in the emailed statement.

Hyundai, including its luxury Genesis brand and corporate sibling Kia, has been making major inroads in the U.S. this year. Ford, meanwhile, has struggled with production of its crucial F-Series pickup trucks following two supplier fires last year that disrupted production and sales.

Hyundai CEO José Muñoz told CNBC last month that topping Ford in U.S. sales isn't a goal but if it happens, it's because of the company's continued focus on products and execution.

"We focus on delivering, the best, safe products to the customer with the highest possible quality," Muñoz said, noting the company is No. 3 in sales globally. "And we end up achieving unbelievable goals."

Aside from pickup production troubles, Cox analysts said sales for Ford and its crosstown rival GM are being hindered by a lack of hybrid vehicles — a rapidly growing market in the U.S. amid inflated gas prices.