Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Fall As Markets Weigh A Potential Democratic Sweep In Midterms: DJT, AMD, SMCI, SOXL In Focus

U.S. stock futures edged lower overnight late Tuesday as early vote counts indicated a potential win for Democrats in the midterm elections.

As of 09:46 p.m. EST, Dow futures fell 0.76%, while the S&P 500 futures were down 1.13% and Nasdaq-100 futures fell nearly 2%.

On Tuesday, the three U.S. benchmark indexes posted a mixed close. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.83% and the S&P 500 gained 0.36% at close. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.38%.

This week, markets have been keyed into the midterms as Democrats and Republicans vie for majority control in the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Early vote counts indicated that the Democrats are headed for majority control in the House as well as the Senate as 2026 U.S. midterm elections polls are inching nearer to close.

The Kobeissi Letter said in a post on X that the Nasdaq 100 futures extended losses to nearly 1.5% on the day as the odds of a Democrat "sweep" rose to 95%, adding that the S&P 500 has now erased about $500 billion in market cap over the last 2 hours.

Prediction market Kalshi put the odds for a Democratic win of the Senate at about 90%, while odds for Democratic control of the House jumped to 97%. Meanwhile, a Stocktwits poll also indicated that markets were largely clocking a win for Democrats in the midterms. Of the roughly 19,400 voters on the poll that sought to gauge how the midterms would go, a 52% majority voted that Democrats would win both chambers.

A “blue wave” scenario is likely to put pressure on the artificial intelligence buildout as investors see a Democratic win as likely to bring in more restrictions on data centers.

In light of the early polls, many AI-linked stocks have pulled back in the overnight session. Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) shares are down about 1.5% at the time of writing, while Micron Technology Inc. (MU) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) are down about 3% each. Tech giants Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) were also in the red territory.

According to a report from CNBC, JPMorgan said that a Democratic win could knock the S&P 500 back by about a half percent on Wednesday.

Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said that if the Republicans end up retaining both chambers of Congress, that could spur a rally in markets.

Meanwhile, Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy and politics at Wolfe Research, noted that the firm’s recent survey data among more than 100 institutional investors suggested that markets are not strongly positioned for any particular result.