State pension likely to top £13,000 a year as UK wage growth slows to 3.9%

Image source, Getty ImagesByEmer Moreau, Business reporter and Kevin Peachey, Cost of living correspondentPublished15 September 2026, 07:12 BSTUpdated 53 minutes agoThe state pension is expected to top £13,000 a year, reigniting the debate about its long-term affordability and generational fairness.

The full, flat-rate state pension is expected to rise by £488 a year in April, based on the latest official earnings figure released on Tuesday.

The so-called triple lock pension policy guarantees that the state pension will increase by either average wage growth, inflation or 2.5% - whichever is highest.

Labour made a manifesto pledge to keep the triple lock until 2029, however economists have warned about the cost of the policy ahead of the Budget although pensioner groups say many people still face poverty in old age.

The triple lock was designed to ensure the value of the state pension was not overtaken by the increase in the cost of living or the incomes of working people.

Although the state pension age is rising to 67, the cost to the government has risen considerably too. Forecasts suggest state pension spending, already at £154bn this year, could go up by a further £600m a year by 2029-30.

The policy is "crazy," Ruth Curtice, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation think tank, told the BBC.

The triple lock is creating a "ratchet effect" where "pensioners' living standards grow even faster than just a typical worker," she added.

"Pensioners have seen living standards grow three times more than typical workers over the last 20 years."

Jonathan Cribb, deputy director of Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) think tank, said: "Each increase in spending builds upon the last and so the long-run cost is substantial but very uncertain."

The state pension is expected to match wage growth in the next calculation and is likely to be higher than the rate of inflation.

Average wage growth, including bonuses, stood at 3.9% between May and July, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), external, down from 4.2% between April and June.