IMD update: Cyclone Arnab may take rains away from South Peninsula

Cyclone Arnab is dragging away moisture and rain (in blue shade) from South Peninsula towards itself and progressively to Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and further north and east until the weekend even as it dies out. | Photo Credit: www.meteoblue.com

A cyclone warning (red message) has been issued to Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts as cyclone Arnab moved nearly westwards with a speed of 13 km/hr since Monday and lay entered over west-central and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal on approach towards Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts.

The Andhra Pradesh government issued an orange alert (cyclone warning) to 17 districts in the state valid till 11.15 am on Tuesday morning. On Monday, a red alert of highest intensity was declared over Nicobars, north and middle Andaman and districts of Andaman and Nicobar Islands, given the proximity to the raging cyclone.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) located the building very severe cyclone on Monday afternoon to 550 km south-east of Gopalpur (Odisha); 580 km east-southeast of Vishakhapatnam; 660 km east-southeast of Kakinada; 760 km east-southeast of Machilipatnam; and 830 km east-southeast of Bapatla.

The cyclone would likely intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm over west-central Bay by Monday evening itself and into a very severe cyclonic storm over the same region on Tuesday. It may cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam close to Yanam by Wednesday morning as a very severe cyclonic storm with the maximum sustained wind speed of 115-125 km/hr gusting to 140 km/hr.

Google DeepMind still projects the probability, though reduced from 98 per cent a day ago to 83 per cent, of the very severe cyclone Arnab ratcheting up in strength by another round to an extremely severe cyclone while weakening on approach towards coast as it encounters cooler waters and increasing vertical wind shear in the higher levels as shifting wind strength and direction may unsettle the standing tall storm tower.

During the 24 hours ending on Monday morning, heavy to very heavy rain lashed parts Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal and heavy rain over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Kerala and Mahe as the cyclone worked away in tandem with a low-pressure are over south coastal Tamil Nadu. The two were linked together by trough from Lakshadweep running across across south Kerala, ensuring an expansive wet spell.

The away-going powerful cyclone may take away the extremely heavy to very heavy to heavy rain from Kerala and Tamil Nadu towards Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Vidarbha, East Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, East Uttar Pradesh, as a remnant wades into the northern and eastern parts of the country.

Andhra Pradesh: Heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Odisha: Heavy to very heavy rainfall on Tuesday, heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy rainfall on Wednesday, and heavy to very heavy rainfall on Thursday.

Telangana: Heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy rainfall over eastern parts of the state on Wednesday and heavy rainfall on Thursday. Chhattisgarh: Heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy rainfall over south Chhattisgarh on Wednesday and over north Chhattisgarh on Thursday.

East Madhya Pradesh: Heavy rainfall on Wednesday; heavy to very heavy rainfall on Thursday; and heavy rainfall on Friday.