‘We don’t have inflation’? Five charts show the US economic reality of Trump’s second term so far

Illustration: Guardian Design/Getty ImagesView image in fullscreen Illustration: Guardian Design/Getty ImagesUS midterm elections 2026Explainer‘We don’t have inflation’? Five charts show the US economic reality of Trump’s second term so farAs the US midterm elections approach, we take a look at data to see a true picture of the US economy under Trump

With the midterm elections fast approaching, many Americans have the economy on their minds.

US voters are exhausted by years of higher prices. Donald Trump won the presidency in 2024 on promises to lower inflation and undo the damage he said the Biden administration had inflicted on the economy.

In Trump’s view, his plan is working. At a recent rally in Montana, Trump boasted about the current economy, framing it as a booming time for Americans. “We’re richer now,” he said. “We don’t have inflation.”

Economic data paints a different picture. Inflation, especially gas prices, has soared over the last year. The job market has been in stasis, and higher interest rates have meant it’s more expensive for Americans to borrow money for loans and mortgages.

These fluctuations have a concrete impact on the lives of Americans. A recent Harris poll for the Guardian found that a majority of Americans, including some Republicans, disagree. Nearly two-thirds said they believe the country is experiencing a recession, and many said higher prices had been a pain point. Americans are reporting having trouble saving, and a third polled said one surprise bill could sink them financially.

The rate of price increases has dramatically cooled since its peak in 2022, when the pandemic’s economic stimulus packages found their way into consumer prices. Inflation peaked at 9.1%, a 40-year high, in June 2022.

In January 2025, the month when Trump started his second term, inflation was down to 3%. By April 2025, it would be 2.3% – the lowest rate since 2021.

That’s when things start to get bumpy. After Trump placed tariffs on nearly everything that the US imports, inflation started to heat up again, climbing back up to 3% in September 2025. After many of his tariffs were paused and eventually found to be illegal, prices started going down again. In January and February 2026, inflation was back down to 2.4%.

The Iran war, specifically its impact on oil prices, has brought inflation back up to levels not seen since 2023. In May, inflation reached 4.2% and has hovered above 3.4% since.

It’s been nearly six years since Americans have seen inflation at a manageable 2% level. Price increases build up over time and can put a squeeze on budgets, which is why it’s such a sensitive point for voters during a crucial election.

In the Guardian’s recent poll with the Harris Poll, gas prices were the most common pain point for Americans, with 83% saying they are making a dent in their current finances.