Kharif Harvest Outlook: Strong prices expected for most crops, except Bajra and Moong

As new Kharif crops arrive in mandis in about 10 days, farmers in top-producing states are expected to receive favourable market prices. The only notable concerns are Bajra (Pear Millet) and Moong (Green Gram), which are lagging behind at 31 per cent and 13 per cent below their MSPs.

Nine out of 14 Kharif crops in which MSPs are announced, including Maize, Jowar, Tur, Urad and Soyabean, were sold on average either at par with their respective MSPs (of 2026-27 season) or higher on September 4, according to Agmarknet data.

In case of paddy, the key Kharif crop in which market rates are influenced by government procurement, currently the average price in Uttar Pradesh was ₹1,965/quintal, the data show.

Despite reports of some likely productivity losses due to impact of El- Nino, the mandi prices of Bajra, Paddy, Moong, Groundnut and Soyabean are ruling in negative ranging from 0.6 per cent to 31 per cent over their next season’s MSPs. Maize, Jowar, Tur and Urad are over their MSPs by up to 11 per cent.

“There is no problem with paddy as the government has been procuring 40 per cent of production. Once the purchase starts (which varies from state to state), mandi prices too pick up. This time, soyabean prices are higher compared to last year, despite strong import of its oil. The groundnut crop in Gujarat, the top producer, will also looks good this year and its prices are also expected to move up,” said a former additional secretary in agriculture ministry.

The maize price, which is ruling higher, is likely to fall once the crop arrives as its demand will compete with other animal feed like soyameal and DDGS, he added.

“Going by the historical data and impact of El- Nino in previous years, there seems to be definite production loss this season. The market is already sensitive to it, which is factored in present prices. The sudden drop in Soyabean is very surprising, which should not hold for long as cartelisation seems to be the reason for it,” said S K Singh, a former additional MD of cooperative major Nafed.

Overall, all major crops should see the prices aligned with their MSPs for their FAQ grade, except Moong where stock disposal by government agencies may keep prices below MSP, Singh added.

In the current year, the sowing area under maize is lower by 3 per cent at 91 lakh hectare (lh) from year-ago level. Similarly, paddy acreage too trails by 4 per cent at 421.82 lh. Area under soyabean and groundnut is lower by about 1 lh, each from year-ago number, official data as on September 4 show.

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