Latest rainfall data highlights severe threat to rabi crops amid deficits and El Niño concerns

Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are among India’s major producers of rabi crops, including wheat, mustard, gram (chana) and lentil (masur).

A strong El Niño may have caused damage to kharif crops in Maharashtra and Karnataka, but its impact on rabi crops could be more widespread and severe. Deficient rainfall has already delayed sowing in several states, while inadequate soil moisture and depleted irrigation reserves threaten both the area sown and yields. Farmers in key rabi-growing regions are now banking on winter rain from Western Disturbances to replenish soil moisture, support germination and reduce dependence on irrigation.

The stakes are high because rabi crops, unlike the monsoon-dependent kharif crops, are sown in the winter months and depend on a combination of residual soil moisture, irrigation and winter precipitation. Rain during this period is particularly important for wheat in northern India, where it helps maintain soil moisture during early crop growth. For pulses and oilseeds, which are often cultivated in rain-fed areas, timely precipitation can determine whether farmers sow the crop at all. A prolonged dry spell could therefore reduce acreage, while inadequate moisture during crop growth could lower yields.

The rainfall deficit across several major agricultural states is already raising concerns. Rajasthan, received 9 per cent below-normal rainfall in September and has recorded a 55 per cent deficit between October 1 and 18, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data.

Maharashtra is also grappling with a severe rainfall shortfall. The state has declared 305 of its 358 talukas, or nearly 85 per cent, drought-hit. It received just 3 per cent of normal rainfall during the first 18 days of October, following a 52 per cent deficit in September. Madhya Pradesh, which recorded 19 per cent excess rainfall in September, has seen a 96 per cent deficit in October so far.

Uttar Pradesh, despite a 37 per cent rainfall deficit in October, is relatively better placed because it received 65 per cent excess rainfall in September, helping preserve soil moisture for sowing.

Punjab and Haryana, meanwhile, have received a reprieve with October rains after suffering substantial deficits in September. Punjab, which recorded a 64 per cent rainfall shortfall last month, has received 256 per cent above-normal rainfall between October 1 and 18. Haryana, which had a 44 per cent deficit in September, has received 191 per cent excess rainfall during the same period. The precipitation could help farmers begin wheat sowing around its normal window in the first week of November.

Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are among India’s major producers of rabi crops, including wheat, mustard, gram (chana) and lentil (masur). A shortfall in rainfall across these states could have implications for the country’s overall foodgrain and oilseed production.

Although the Agriculture Ministry has yet to begin releasing its weekly rabi sowing updates, sources said gram acreage in Rajasthan was below 6,000 hectares, while mustard acreage was around one lakh hectares. These figures are significantly below the state’s rabi 2026-27 targets of 21.5 lakh hectares for gram and 37.5 lakh hectares for mustard, indicating that the sowing season is off to a slow start.

The vulnerability is particularly acute for pulses and oilseeds, as 60-70 per cent of their rabi acreage is rain-fed and therefore directly exposed to rainfall shortages, said J S Sandhu, a former Agriculture Commissioner. While irrigation facilities will allow cultivation to continue in some areas, water availability remains a major constraint, including in parts of Punjab and Haryana, he said.

The outlook for pulses is especially concerning in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan. Sandhu cited estimates from one district in Rajasthan, where the government expects pulses acreage to decline by 10 per cent. The risk to production could rise further if El Niño-related terminal heat causes crops to mature prematurely, shortening the grain-filling period and reducing yields.

Insufficient water in reservoirs could also lead to a contraction in the area under major rabi crops, particularly in regions dependent on canal irrigation. Even crops that generally require only one or two rounds of irrigation are now vulnerable, Sandhu said, as inadequate water availability could affect their growth and productivity.