Rural voters were feeling left behind before the midterms, poll shows

Voters enter a polling station on 3 November 2026 in Louisburg, Kansas. Photograph: Jim Vondruska/Getty ImagesView image in fullscreenVoters enter a polling station on 3 November 2026 in Louisburg, Kansas. Photograph: Jim Vondruska/Getty ImagesUS economyAnalysisRural voters were feeling left behind before the midterms, poll showsLauren ArataniPolling done for the Guardian shows plummeting support from a former key constituency of Donald Trump’s base

Polling conducted by the Harris Poll for the Guardian before the election shows just how angry voters were and points to one key reason Republicans lost so badly: plummeting support from rural voters, once a key constituency of Donald Trump’s base.

Over the summer, 95% of Americans indicated they believed there was an affordability crisis, particularly because of steep gas and grocery prices. By October, 61% of voters believed the country was experiencing a recession, even though technically it wasn’t.

It’s hard to ignore the impact inflation has had on this election. Key voters had expressed for months deep discontent with what had become the status quo. Loggers in Maine said that tariffs against Canada were hurting their already-battered industry. Drivers in Texas facing three-hour commutes to work were spending $400 a month on gas. Farmers across the midwest said diesel prices were exacerbating a growing season beleaguered by drought.

Recent data showed the flip wasn’t just seen among Democrats and independents, who have held pessimistic views on the economy since Trump returned to office, but among some Republicans, too.

In February, right before the war in Iran began, 49% of Republicans said the economy was getting better. By October, that number would drop to just 28%.

The pain seemed especially acute for rural voters, long considered a core base for Trump.

The president had gained many of his supporters by angling himself as a successful businessman who would be an outsider in Washington. But soaring gas and diesel prices have been a major pain point in parts of the country where driving long distances is an everyday part of life.

Rural voters were much more likely to say that gas prices were hurting their finances and that they were in economic “survival mode”, or that one surprise bill could sink them, compared with their urban and suburban counterparts. They were also slightly more likely to say that Republicans had a bigger problem with corruption, or elected officials using their position for personal financial gain, than Democrats.

In the month before the midterms, the number of rural Americans who said the economy was getting worse climbed 17% since Trump took office, compared with a 5% increase for those in the suburbs and a 3% jump among urban voters.

Yet on the eve of the midterm elections, Trump was trying to speak a different reality into existence, one where gas prices were going down, wages were rising and the US’s trade with other countries had never been stronger.

“I’ve traveled all across the country, spoken at all of these rallies I’ve done over the last two and a half weeks, and America is ready to go. They’re ready to vote,” Trump said in front of the Lincoln Memorial’s Reflecting Pool on Monday. “I hope they’re ready to do the right thing.”