Dhanteras–Diwali auto boom turns K-shaped; only 1 in 2 dealers expects growth

India’s automakers are counting on festive discounts, refreshed models and strong SUV demand to carry October’s sales momentum into the Dhanteras–Diwali buying period in November. But a K-shaped recovery is emerging: popular SUVs face tight supplies, while slower-moving cars require substantial incentives and rural commuter motorcycles struggle to regain momentum.

Mahindra & Mahindra is witnessing “very strong demand” across its SUV portfolio, with physical dealership stocks close to zero across most models, said Rajesh Jejurikar, Executive Director and CEO, Auto and Farm Sector.

“We are operating at full capacity, with our October volumes exceeding the capacity levels we had indicated earlier,” Jejurikar said. Mahindra has less than eight to nine days of SUV inventory, excluding vehicles in transit, and maintains its mid-to-high-teen SUV growth outlook for FY27.

Hyundai Managing Director and CEO Tarun Garg attributed the record October sales to strong festive demand, with scope for continued momentum during Diwali. “Dhanteras and Diwali are one of the most auspicious days to bring home a new vehicle and we are witnessing strong customer demand this year as well. We expect to deliver around 16,000 units, nearly 14% higher than last year,“ he said.

“At Cars24, we delivered 750 cars on the first day of Navratri alone, registering 58 per cent year-on-year growth and nearly five times our usual Sunday volumes,” said Cars24’s CFO for India, Shivanshu Makkar.

Partho Banerjee, Sr. Executive Officer, Marketing & Sales, Maruti Suzuki India, said: “We are expecting to deliver around 30,000 vehicles on Dhanteras this year. What is particularly encouraging is that the strong momentum is not limited to one day. From Ganesh Chaturthi on September 14 to November 6, we have recorded retail sales of over 4 lakh vehicles, compared to 3.46 lakh units during the same period last year.

“The Brezza and Baleno with minor model changes have received a very good response. Within a span of just two months, Baleno sales have crossed the 50,000 mark and Brezza sales have crossed 70,000, with both having huge pending bookings”.

Amit Kamat, Chief Commercial Officer, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles said, “The festive season has delivered strong and sustained demand across markets, with customers nationwide choosing our vehicles to mark the occasion. Newly launched products have added further momentum, strengthening traction across the portfolio.

“Since Ganesh Chaturthi, we have recorded retail growth of over 20% compared with the same period last year, reflecting the strength of underlying demand. Dhanteras saw an outstanding response, with single-day deliveries expected to cross 12,000 vehicles. Diwali muhurat deliveries will continue till Wednesday, and we expect this momentum to carry into the coming days.”

Domestic passenger vehicle dispatches reached an estimated record 5.25–5.30 lakh units in October.

Channel checks with dealers and industry watchers indicate manufacturers and dealerships are wooing festive buyers with discounts and feature upgrades. Indicative benefits reach ₹5.5 lakh on the outgoing Volkswagen Tiguan stock and ₹3.35 lakh on select Tata Curvv EV variants, while popular models command minimal discounts. Offers vary by city, dealership and variant.

Yet manufacturers’ optimism contrasts with dealer expectations. Only 51.65 per cent of dealers surveyed by the Federation of Automobile Dealers’ Associations (FADA) expect November retail growth, against 75.57 per cent ahead of October.