Rupee likely pinned near 95 as RBI defence counters oil headwinds

The Indian rupee is likely to be under pressure from high oil prices ​at Monday’s open. | Photo Credit: desifoto

The Indian rupee is likely to be under pressure from high oil prices ​at Monday's open, with the central bank's dollar sales expected ‌to support the currency and keep it near ​what traders perceive to be the central ⁠bank's soft defence line.

The rupee is expected to open in a 94.92 to 94.98 range, per traders, having settled at 94.96 ‌to the dollar on Friday.

The rupee has oscillated around the 95-per-dollar mark in recent sessions, ‌briefly strengthening past the level before struggling to sustain ‌it. ⁠Subsequent declines past that level have repeatedly met ⁠resistance.

The pattern suggests that the Reserve Bank of India may be selling dollars to limit weakness past the 95 level, making ​the level an important near-term ‌support for the currency, a currency trader at a bank said.

The rupee last week posted its best weekly performance in nearly four years, buoyed by the ‌RBI’s measures to support the currency and repeated ​dollar sales in the spot market.

The RBI has stepped up its intervention to prop ⁠up the rupee, which remains under pressure from oil prices and capital outflows.

The central bank's stepped-up defence of the ‌rupee alongside sell/buy swaps is reflected in foreign exchange reserves. The country’s reserves have shed nearly $60 billion since hitting an all-time high in the first week of September, falling to $726 billion through October 9.

Oil remains a key pressure point for the ‌rupee, with Brent crude briefly climbing above $110 a barrel on Friday ​for the first time since May. Prices dipped slightly on Monday, with Brent trading around $108 a ⁠barrel after US President Donald Trump waived new sanctions on ⁠Russia and tariffs on good from Russia, potentially paving the way for increased Russian fuel exports.

There is ‌broad consensus among analysts and investors that the RBI's efforts to support the rupee will go ​only so far unless oil prices retreat.

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