Western disturbances keep North-West India wet as monsoon falters

Western disturbances may spark a wet spell over North-West and Central India (in green) and flare-up over North-East (dark brown and yellow) while a fresh monsoon pulse approaches Kerala and onward into Bay of Bengal (blue, purple), per outlook valid until Sunday. | Photo Credit: www.tropicaltidbits.com

Western disturbances continue to stream into North-West India, exploiting the monsoon’s sluggish advance from the south and delivering unexpectedly healthy rainfall totals well ahead of its normal onset in the region.

The contrast is most evident in the desert state of Rajasthan, where rainfall has ranged from excess to large excess even as the monsoon struggles to regain momentum after its delayed onset over Kerala.

North-West has recorded 5 per cent above normal rainfall so far this season. Within the region, West Rajasthan has posted a surplus of 20 per cent, while East Rajasthan leads with an impressive 80 per cent.

The Delhi-Haryana-Chandigarh subdivision has also recorded abundant rainfall, registering a 38 per cent surplus. Most other sub-divisions remain in the normal category, with East Uttar Pradesh the lone deficient region at -28 per cent.

The picture is different elsewhere. Central India, comprising Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, is running a cumulative deficit of 61 per cent. East and North-East India are also lagging, with -43 per cent, while the South Peninsula is -14 per cent, though still within the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) normal range.

The wet spell over North-West India is likely to persist over the coming days as well. A causative fresh western disturbance has anchored itself over North Pakistan and induced a cyclonic circulation to form over south Punjab, enhancing rainfall prospects across the region. A successor disturbance is waiting its turn, too.

According to IMD, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is expected over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad for next six days, with another spell likely on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and East Rajasthan for seven days; Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi for six days; Punjab for five days from Thursday, as well as for parts of Uttar Pradesh during the period.

Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning, gusty winds, thunder squalls and dust storms are also likely across several parts of the region. Supporting the activity is a truncated seasonal trough extending from Punjab to Bihar through Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.

In addition, a series of cyclonic circulations positioned along the disturbance’s eastward track could reinforce the system as it gradually weakens, helping sustain rainfall activity.

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