5 takeaways from airline CEOs' biggest annual gathering

RIO DE JANEIRO — Hundreds of airline leaders gathered in Brazil this week at the International Air Transport Association's annual assembly to discuss high fuel costs, sharply lower profits, engine reliability issues and elusive emission reduction goals, among other things.

Toward the end of the assembly in Rio de Janeiro, news broke that Iran and Israel traded strikes for the first time since a ceasefire went into effect in April. For airline executives who have faced ongoing turmoil since the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, it seemed like just one more blip in the whipsawing chaos of 2026. Those airline leaders' stance so far has been to wait and see.

Fuel costs have more than doubled in some places since the beginning of the Iran war, as the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane, has been effectively closed for much of the time.

IATA said airlines globally are absorbing a $100 billion increase in their fuel costs this year, which along with airspace closures due to Middle East attacks curtailing travel, will likely halve airline profits this year.

Willie Walsh, the outgoing director general of the organization, said net profits will fall from $45 billion in 2025 to $23 billion in 2026, and that net margins would drop from 4.2% last year to 2% this year.

While fares are up, airlines haven't been able to cover the full fuel bill this year, so profits will take a hit.

Etihad Airways, based in Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates, initially felt the effect of the Middle East turmoil this year with lower demand. But Antonoaldo Neves, group chief executive officer of Etihad Aviation Group, said in an interview that the number of tickets are about the same as pre-conflict, seasonally adjusted.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby, who runs the second-most profitable airline in the U.S., said customers continue to book, even though fares are up about 20% and could rise further if fuel costs continue to increase.

He said the resilient bookings surprised even him. "I think the economy is stronger than people think," he told CNBC in an interview. The U.S. is also more insulated from oil supply shocks than other regions because it produces so much.

Summer bookings are strong, and airlines are also getting better at managing capacity with high fuel prices, cutting more unprofitable routes and reducing frequencies. The big question remains what happens after the main summer and fall peaks.

"That bodes well for a strong northern summer peak season," Walsh said of current trends. "The big unknown is how long travelers and shippers can tolerate the higher costs of connectivity."

"If prices will remain the same, yeah, for sure, less people be able to afford to travel," said Kamil Al-Awadhi, former Kuwait Airways CEO and IATA's vice president for Africa and the Middle East.