IMD Update: Very severe cyclone threat for Bapatla-Vizag coast in Andhra Pradesh

Rain-heavy clouds hung over Rameswaram, Madurai and Karaikudi in south Tamil Nadu; Udhagamandalam and Coimbatore in the west; and adjoining Malappuram and Palakkad districts in Kerala on Sunday evening as a cyclone was in the making over the Bay of Bengal. | Photo Credit: www.meteologix.com

A brewing cyclone in the Bay of Bengal, expected to intensify three times over as a very severe cyclone, threatens to unleash a spell of dangerous weather across the South Peninsula, with isolated extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 20 cm forecast over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, and Kerala and Mahe.

Isolated to extremely heavy rainfall is likely also over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on Tuesday and Wednesday; and Telangana on Wednesday. Heavy to very heavy rain (7-11 cm) is likely at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe, and South Interior Karnataka. Heavy rain at isolated places over Rayalaseema and Coastal Karnataka.

The bigger threat lies along the Andhra Pradesh coast, where the storm may make landfall by Wednesday. Squally weather, gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast over the western and central Bay of Bengal from Tuesday, with impact spilling over to the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Odisha coasts.

Sunday morning’s parent depression intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at over the same region about 420 km north-northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram (Andaman Islands), 870 km east-southeast of Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 960 km east-southeast of Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh), 1060 km east- Southeast of Machilipatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and 1,130 km east of Bapatla (Andhra Pradesh).

It is very likely to move nearly southwest, and intensify further into a cyclonic storm over east-central and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal early on Sunday morning. Then it is very likely to move west-northwest over east-central and adjoining west-central Bay and intensify into a severe cyclone over west-central Bay by Tuesday morning.

Thereafter, it is very likely to move north-west, intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm and reach west-central Bay near Andhra Pradesh coast around Wednesday morning. It is very likely to cross Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam as a very severe cyclone with maximum sustained wind speed of 115-125 km/hr gusting to 140 km/hr by Tuesday midnight/Wednesday morning.

The IMD has also warned of dangerous sailing/fishing conditions over the Bay waters over next few days. The powerful cyclone would churn up the Bay with sea conditions likely turning ‘rough to very rough’ (wave heights of 13-20 ft) over west-central Bay from Sunday evening. It would become ‘high’ (20 to 30 ft) from Monday morning and ‘very high’ (23 to 32 ft) by Tuesday morning, and deteriorate further becoming ‘phenomenal’ (wave heights of over 46 ft) by Wednesday till afternoon before improving gradually.

The system’s slow movement over exceptionally warm waters could give it a longer window to draw energy from the sea and feed on abundant atmospheric moisture. The first cyclone of the ongoing north-east monsoon season, it could therefore pose a formidable challenge as it approaches land. Sea-surface temperatures along its projected path over the west-central Bay are hovering around 30°C, only marginally lower off the Andhra Pradesh coast. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center has indicated that the prevailing atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive to rapid intensification as the storm closes in on the coast.

Meanwhile, a moisture-laden trough stretching across north coastal Tamil Nadu, linked to a low-pressure area over the south-east Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep, could provide an additional feed of moisture. The combined weather systems are expected to bring strong surface winds to North Interior Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, and Rayalaseema over the next three to four days.

The immediate watch is on the storm’s track and rate of intensification, both critical to determining the severity of the eventual landfall and the extent of the damage along the coast. On Sunday afternoon, Google DeepMind downgraded probability from 100 per cent to 97 per cent of the emerging cyclone of intensifying to an extremely severe cyclone with projected peak sustained wind speeds of 200 km/hr, ahead of landfall.

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