Brokers’ call: Motilal Oswal (Buy)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) is a diversified Indian financial services group with businesses spanning wealth management, asset management and capital markets.

MOFSL looks well positioned to capitalise on India’s structural financialisation, with exposure to high-growth AUM pools from wealth and asset management. We believe industry tailwinds remain robust and forecast mutual funds’ AUM to grow at an 18 per cent CAGR by FY30E, with a 20%-plus CAGR (FY30E) for HNI wealth and alternatives.

The firm is transitioning to an AUM-led, annuity-driven model, where growth is linked to client assets rather than transaction volumes. For FY26-29E, we expect AUM to expand at a 21 per cent CAGR, driving a 19 per cent revenue CAGR. We believe the market underappreciates MOFSL’s shift to higher quality, recurring wealth and distribution earnings, reducing broking cyclicality and driving a 22 per cent earnings CAGR over FY26-29E.

We believe historical multiples are of less relevance due to the evolving business model and increasing share of fee-based income. Our valuation is anchored to higher multiples for asset-light businesses (AMC about 28x, private wealth around 25x, wealth 18x) and a relatively lower multiple for capital markets (14x) on FY28E earnings.

Based on our PEG ratio analysis, we think the stock offers attractive risk-reward, trading at 15x one-year forward PE, slightly above its three-year average. We initiate coverage at Buy.

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