Monsoon nears Mumbai as Bay system holds key to wider revival

Surge in winds from the seas from Monday morning translated into rainfall (dark blue) along the west and east coasts as the monsoon broke a fortnight-long hiatus to resume its journey. | Photo Credit: www.meteoblue.com

After a frustrating fortnight-long pause, the monsoon has resumed its advance, reaching Alibag, less than 100 km south of Mumbai, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. Conditions are becoming increasingly favourable for its arrival over Mumbai within the next couple of days.

The renewed advance is expected to carry seasonal rains deeper into Maharashtra; remaining parts of Telangana and Odisha; and further into Chhattisgarh; Jharkhand; and Bihar. The progression marks the beginning of a broader wet spell spreading across East India and into the rain-starved agricultural belts of Central India.

The revival comes as the Arabian Sea branch regains strength and a potentially crucial low-pressure area begins to take shape over the Bay of Bengal. Together, they could trigger a significant phase of monsoon advance since onset, bringing relief to deficit-hit regions and improving rainfall distribution across large parts of the country.

Roughening seas have prompted fishermen warnings on both coasts. Alerts are in force over the Gulf of Mannar for the next five days; parts of the south-west Bay and adjoining Sri Lanka coast for three days from Thursday; and along the Odisha; West Bengal; and north Andhra Pradesh coasts for three days from Monday. The increasing churning over the Bay is also seen as a precursor to formation of the crucial ‘low.’

On the Arabian Sea side, fishermen have been advised against venturing into waters along and off the Konkan; Goa; Karnataka and Kerala coasts; and around Lakshadweep on Tuesday. Fresh warnings cover the Konkan; Goa; and Karnataka coasts for three days from Wednesday and the Comorin region for five days from Monday as monsoon winds gather strength and depth.

Two atmospheric features are now under close watch. The first is the seasonal monsoon trough stretching from Rajasthan to Bihar through Uttar Pradesh. The second is an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the north and adjoining central Bay .Meteorologists believe the two could reinforce each other, creating an atmospheric corridor that channels moisture-laden winds from the Bay deep into Central and North-West India.

Much depends on whether the Bay throws up a ‘low,’ as expected. If could become the anchor for monsoon revival phase and sustain rain activity well beyond the immediate term. Several weather models indicate that such a ‘low’ is likely to form, with some even hinting at a successor disturbance thereafter. Yet, the outlook warrants caution, with a strengthening El Niño continuing to cast a long shadow from the equatorial Pacific.

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