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North America
CNBC Finance

Holiday retail sales are expected to top $1 trillion as inflation boosts growth

Despite macroeconomic pressures and a cautious consumer, retail sales this holiday season are expected to grow year-over-year as spending remains strong. According to Bain & Company's annual forecast, holiday retail sales are expected to top $1 trillion for the first time, marking a 4.5% growth. That growth is largely projected to be from in-store sales at 70%, though e-commerce is continuing to gain share. The holiday spending is supported by higher tax refunds, which are up $43 billion this year, or 17% year over year, adding more cash to consumers' wallets. Even still, the report noted that Bank of America estimates half of that benefit has already gone to higher gas prices, which have significantly squeezed budgets. Bain also noted that the headline spending increase is underscored by rising inflation, which accounts for most of the growth, making actual unit growth thinner than it appears. Categories that are most affected by inflation with unit decline include food and beverage, furniture, and health and personal care. The spending forecast comes as the Conference Board reported Tuesday that consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014 in September. Respondents said they were worried about inflation and the jobs outlook. Still, Deloitte forecast a similar projection to Bain, saying it expects holiday retail sales to reach $1.7 trillion this year. It noted that consumers are going to get more creative about how they're spending their money, including looking for discounts and markdowns. "As they look to get more out of their dollars, we continue to see value-seeking behaviors across income levels, including switching among brands and retailers and using promotions to manage spending," said Natalie Martini, vice chair of Deloitte and U.S. retail and consumer products leader. "These behaviors are expected to shape how consumers approach holiday shopping this season." That's a trend echoed by Adobe's holiday shopping report, which expects value-first shopping to power growth and share this year. The company also said it expects buy now, pay later spending to hit a record of $21.3 billion as consumers become more intentional with how they're spending their money. In another sign of changing habits, consumers have smaller baskets when they're checking out, but they're making more frequent trips, especially when it comes to grocery shopping, according to AlixPartners' holiday projections report. They're also shifting from premium to private-label brands and buying fewer, higher-quality items. "Consumers are not cutting back evenly across every category," Sonia Lapinsky, leader of fashion retail at AlixPartners, said. "They are becoming more selective about self-gifting and looking for ways to preserve quality while staying within their budgets." Artificial intelligence will also be a theme for discovery and purchasing this holiday season. According to Adobe, AI-driven traffic to retail sites grew 127% year-over-year in August and is expected to grow 130% year-over-year overall through the holiday season and 141% year-over-year on Thanksgiving. According to PwC's holiday report, 29% of consumers plan to use AI somewhere in their holiday shopping this year. That's up from 22% last year.

Holiday retail sales are expected to top $1 trillion as inflation boosts growth
North America
Yahoo Finance

Jim Cramer Warns Q3 ‘Earnings Deluge’ May Not Be As Strong As Previous Quarter — ‘Much More Difficult Backdrop’

Jim Cramer warned investors Friday to brace for a potentially tougher third-quarter (Q3) earnings season, saying rising interest rates and the Federal Reserve's ongoing fight against inflation have created a more challenging backdrop for corporate results. Cramer’s warning comes as major U.S. banks prepare to kick off the Q3 earnings cycle on Oct. 14, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Citigroup Inc. (C) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) among the first major companies to report. Cramer said investors should not expect the same strength they have become accustomed to. “We’re on the verge of the earnings deluge and, this time, I don’t think we’ll be getting the kind of strong numbers that we’ve become accustomed to,” Cramer said on Friday on CNBC's “Mad Money.” Cramer's warning comes against a mixed market backdrop, with the S&P 500 having posted declines in three of the past four weeks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined in four of the past five weeks. The Nasdaq Composite has been the exception, posting back-to-back weekly gains as AI and technology stocks continue to provide concentrated market leadership. “Thanks to rising rates and [a Federal Reserve] that’s determined to bring down inflation, we’ve got a much more difficult backdrop coming up for earnings season,” Cramer said. However, data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of a 25 basis point rate hike in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month are 22.1%. Cramer stressed that investors can still make money in the current environment, but said doing so will be more difficult than it has been. “I’m not saying it’s impossible to make money owning stocks in this environment, but it’s certainly a lot harder than it used to be,” he said. Despite his broader caution, Cramer sees an important event on Tuesday when Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL) holds its investor day. The semiconductor company, which develops custom AI chips and networking technology, is expected to provide updated long-term targets under CEO Matt Murphy. Cramer said the presentation could highlight how deeply Marvell is becoming embedded in the massive data-center buildout driven by AI. “I bet his presentation will be very strong, with big reverberations throughout the hyperscaler world,” he added.

Jim Cramer Warns Q3 ‘Earnings Deluge’ May Not Be As Strong As Previous Quarter — ‘Much More Difficult Backdrop’
Europe
BBC Business

Rainmakers: The drones used to seed clouds

On 23 August, Cooper Freeman had no idea clouds above his head were being filled with a silver compound in order to cause rainfall. Neither did thousands of other residents in Homer, Alaska, who later discovered San Francisco start-up Rainmaker conducted an experiment in that region using cloud-seeding technology. The company claims it produced 19 million US gallons of water in the sky in three hours. This approach to weather modification, now more than 80-years-old, involves using planes and drones to disperse compounds such as silver iodide into clouds to form ice crystals. Those crystals eventually become large enough to fall as rain or snow, depending on the temperatures below. Essentially, cloud seeding speeds up the natural process of water vapor condensing inside of clouds. Gravity then pulls those crystals to the ground. The technology, though, needs ideal climate environments, such as mountainous or cold regions such as Alaska. Freeman, the Alaska director of the Center for Biological Diversity, isn't just concerned Homer residents weren't widely alerted to these experiments. He's sceptical about what was shot into the clouds, and questions how safe it was for both residents and their habitat. "It doesn't appear that there was any downstream monitoring to verify that this silver iodide didn't impact the environment," he says. Freeman adds, "Having a company come in to do this seeding isn't going to solve our water woes, and it feels like a distraction from solving the urgent issues related to water conservation." Concerns are mounting about the challenges surrounding water security. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in July "our world is using freshwater faster than it can be replenished, external", which echoes reports noting how the past five years have led to the driest period for global rivers, external in more than three decades. Cloud-seeding technology may be a drop in the bucket, as it doesn't create rainstorms. For example, Rainmaker's 19 million gallons equates to around 0.01 inch of rain across 100 square miles. Nevertheless, more than 50 countries, external are developing programmes to modify the weather and a surge of start-ups are developing systems to create rain. As well developed and promising as this innovative field has become, these businesses continue to face thorny questions on safety and efficacy, leading to novel approaches with both finding the right material to spray into clouds and how they do it.

Rainmakers: The drones used to seed clouds
Europe
BBC Business

Half the harvest, twice the bills: how drought hit farms

The hottest summer on record, the longest drought, the worst harvest. West Country farmers are counting the cost of a "terrible summer", as one put it. The wheat harvest on Charles Day's family farm in Gloucestershire was cut in half. "It's just soul-destroying," he says. Dairy farmers had to rip open silage clamps stored up for the winter to feed the cattle as the grass failed. Sarah Godwin calculates it cost her family's Wiltshire farm "over £100,000". She says "it's shocking". I spent the summer watching farmers install showers for cows, watch their cauliflowers burn to a crisp in the heat, and search for apples in cider orchards reduced to a tenth of their normal crop. Buy a loaf of bread and there's a good chance it started in the fields of Charles Day's family farm in north Gloucestershire. "I love harvest," the fourth generation farmer tells me. "It's a whole year's work coming to fruition." But 2026 was brutal. The crops were looking "fantastic" in April, he told me. Then in June, the rain stopped and "the sun just stole our yield". Throughout the crucial weeks of June and July, there was no rain at all. Wheat grains shrivelled instead of fattening, and the yield plummeted. Official figures estimate the total UK cereal harvest was the lowest on record, external, wheat down about three million tonnes, or 11% according to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB). Anthony Hopkins, AHDB director of cereals and oilseeds, says: "At a time of high input costs, arable farmers in the worst-affected areas are really feeling the financial pressure right now." When the combines went out on Charles Day's family farm, they gathered a harvest "about 50% down, sometimes more". Across the South West, Tom Collins, who speaks for the NFU in Wiltshire, says most cereal farmers had seen harvests down "at least 30%". Spring barley and beans were more than 50% down, he adds, particularly badly hit by the drought.

Half the harvest, twice the bills: how drought hit farms
Europe
BBC Business

Incredible or catastrophic? Jaguar unveils its polarising electric car

Two years ago, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) relaunched Jaguar into a blizzard of controversy. Its bizarre teaser ad was described as "woke" and its "Barbie pink" concept car was ridiculed. Now, the first of its new models has appeared in public for the first time. The all-electric Type 01, unveiled in New York, represents a radical new direction for the classic brand. The car itself is an imposing four-door "Grand Tourer", with a long bonnet that deliberately harks back to Jaguar's emblematic 1960s E-Type. But it marks a gamble for JLR, which has invested billions reinventing Jaguar and is facing mixed reactions over the new car's design and the brand's all-electric strategy. The new model's electric motors are potent, producing about 1000 horsepower and allowing it to accelerate from 0-62mph in 3.2 seconds. JLR says it has a range, at "sustained highway speed", of up to 320 miles. The company describes it as the "most technically advanced, powerful and aerodynamic Jaguar ever engineered". However, it comes at a hefty price tag, with a minimum cost of £130,000 ($172,426). In the US, the Type 01 has a starting price of $130,500. Under normal circumstances, the launch of a car like this might generate few headlines. But in this case the attention has been much greater, and for good reason. In 2024 Jaguar unveiled its new identity to the public. The first step was a surreal advert, showing models in a range of bizarre and brightly coloured outfits. There was a new Jaguar logo - but no cars in sight. Two weeks later, Jaguar's denim-clad design chief Gerry McGovern took to a Miami stage to unveil a pair of radical concept cars, resplendent in Miami Pink and London Blue colour schemes. "Jaguar has no desire to be loved by everybody," he quipped. The event was meant to herald Jaguar's future as a luxury all-electric marque, but it triggered a furious backlash in the press and on social media. Critics claimed JLR was betraying its heritage in favour of going "woke". Even the colour chosen for the launch was derided as "Barbie pink", as culture wars erupted around it.

Incredible or catastrophic? Jaguar unveils its polarising electric car
Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

IMD: Heavy rain in Keralam, South Karnataka, TN, Puducherry for 4 days from Thursday

European Centre for Medium-Rane Weather Forecasts suspects a bulk of rain during the opening spell of north-east monsoon being directed into the seas away from Sri Lanka/Tamil Nadu coasts. | Photo Credit: www.tropicaltidbits.com The north-east monsoon could set in over the South Peninsula within next two days, even as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) appeared on Monday to have dropped its watch for Tuesday for a low-pressure area that the south-east Bay of Bengal was thought to come up with. The trigger for the emerging wet spell may instead be a trough linking cyclonic circulations over the south-west and central Bay off Sri Lanka coast with the parent circulation over the south Andaman Sea. This circulation has merged into this trough, which could help channel the easterlies and usher in the north-east monsoon. The 2026 season is set to open with a six-day wet spell from Wednesday/Thursday, with isolated heavy rainfall forecast over several parts of the South Peninsula. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal are likely to bear the brunt of the initial spell, followed by Kerala and Mahe from Thursday, an IMD said on Monday. The rain belt is expected to extend across coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and South Interior Karnataka for four days from Thursday; Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema for three days from Friday; and Telangana on Saturday. Isolated to scattered, and at times fairly widespread to widespread overlapping rainfall is forecast at many places across these regions during these days, with pockets of heavy rain. Historical performance of the north-east monsoon shows the meteorological subdivision of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal received its highest seasonal rainfall in 2015 (floods) and 2021. The absolute lowest point was 2016 (-62 per cent). It remains the only subdivision in India where rainfall during north-east (October to December) monsoon rainfall exceeds that during the south-west monsoon (June to September). For Kerala and Mahe, 2011-2025 has delivered a highly volatile season marked by excesses and severe deficits in 2016 and 2023. The subdivision logged exceptionally high excess in 2021 and 2023 (+27 per cent) that contrasted heavily with dry spells during strong El Niño interludes where its interior catchments have routinely failed. With the Bay of Bengal primed for the retreating monsoon nearing its final exit, the South Peninsula is entering a consequential wet phase of the seasonal calendar. The coming days will determine how quickly the easterlies take charge, and whether the expected onset of north-east monsoon brings a sustained spell of rain to the region after the south-west monsoon’s long retreat leaves behind a significant deficit. The emerging weather pattern is already offering a foretaste of the transition, with rain, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds unfolding over several parts of southern India. These conditions could intensify on either side of October 15, around which the north-east monsoon is likely to set in over Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas. The south-west monsoon must complete its retreat from the mainland before the seasonal transition is fully established, although the two processes can overlap in time. This year, its final retreat and the onset of north-east monsoon are expected to converge, making the coming days a crucial window for the South Peninsula. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is expected over Kerala and Mahe for four days from Thursday; Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Lakshadweep and South Interior Karnataka for three days from Friday; Coastal Karnataka and North Interior Karnataka over Saturday and Sunday; and Rayalaseema on Thursday and Friday. Isolated to scattered rainfall may persist over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal for six more days. Kerala and Mahe are likely to receive such rainfall for two days, while Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Lakshadweep and South Interior Karnataka could see it for three days. Coastal Karnataka and North Interior Karnataka are forecast to receive isolated to scattered rainfall on Thursday and Friday, with Rayalaseema likely to experience similar conditions over the weekend. Telangana, meanwhile, could see rain for four days from Thursday.

IMD: Heavy rain in Keralam, South Karnataka, TN, Puducherry for 4 days from Thursday
Europe
The Guardian

Misuse of AI is brands’ top reputational threat, new survey says

People protest outside OpenAI's office in New York City on 21 September. Photograph: Julius Constantine Motal/The GuardianView image in fullscreenPeople protest outside OpenAI's office in New York City on 21 September. Photograph: Julius Constantine Motal/The GuardianAI (artificial intelligence)Misuse of AI is brands’ top reputational threat, new survey saysThe findings come after warnings from tech leaders that AI placed in the wrong hands could trigger larger threats such as nuclear war or bioweaponry destruction Misusing artificial intelligence (AI) is the top threat to companies’ reputations – more so than being accused of putting children in the way of mental, emotional or physical harm and issues exposed by the US-Israel war on Iran, among other brand risks, according to a new survey of more than 150 public affairs leaders. Those findings in the new edition of the quarterly Reputation Risk Index, released on Tuesday, came on the heels of other perhaps more dire warnings from leading tech figures that AI in the wrong hands could precipitate existential threats on a mass scale such as nuclear war or destruction by bioweaponry. The index’s publisher, the Global Risk Advisory Council, acknowledged that misuse of AI is not a particularly new concern in its area of focus, having been identified as a top worry repeatedly since the first edition of the survey in April 2025. But the council said what is new is its attaching an advisory to its latest survey advising business leaders to “take immediate and decisive action to mitigate potential long-term brand damage” with respect to AI, as the technology has “become a clear and present danger to public confidence for many corporations”. “As AI is rapidly deployed for productivity gains, we have also seen diminishing public trust in the technology, elevating the need for businesses to take measures to protect their brands,” council chair Isabel Casillas Guzman said in a statement. “In this environment, AI use or overuse can quickly damage a company’s standing with customers, investors, or other key stakeholders, making it essential for companies to deploy preventive tactics now.” The creators of the council and the Reputation Risk Index – the Washington DC-based public affairs firm Global Situation Room – say it surveys former heads of state, government ministers and senior executives from more than 20 countries in five continents who are invited to participate after establishing their credentials in responding to crises. Respondents to the new survey collectively perceived the technology to have shown great promise in creating “organizational efficiency” – while simultaneously “accelerating safety and data concerns, hacks, fraud, straining privacy protections, upending the workforce, and dragging companies into court as lawsuits increasingly link AI products to real-world harm”. Meanwhile, actions or accusations of putting children at risk of mental, emotional or physical harm also ranked highly behind misused AI – along with infringing individuals’ sensitive information, according to the index results published on Tuesday. Unethical or illegal behavior used to gain a strategic advantage or profit and, separately, poor strategic or operational decisions resulting in reduced financial or public standing rounded out the top five, according to the index. The index noted that its preceding edition released in July identified supply chain issues, divisive political stances and other factors associated with the war that the Trump’s administration started in Iran alongside Israel as the leading risk to companies’ reputations. But those surveyed indicated that those anxieties had eased as the conflict dragged out – and perhaps despite it remaining unresolved since it was launched in February. “The geopolitical shock … hasn’t gone away, but its first, sharpest reputational blow has faded, and the conflict has slipped out of the top tier [of concerns] even as it grinds on,” Guzman said in a “message from the chair” included in the index.

Misuse of AI is brands’ top reputational threat, new survey says
North America
CNBC Finance

Private capital is reshaping Hollywood moviemaking

At the Toronto International Film Festival last month, audiences saw "Wicked" star Cynthia Erivo return to the big screen for her newest movie, "Prima Facie." While "Wicked" was a massive Universal undertaking, Erivo's new movie was produced in part by Camelback Productions, a smaller Hollywood venture aiming to fund independent film, according to CEO Anita Verma-Lallian. She's one of many private investors who are betting big on Hollywood as the moviegoing landscape shifts and a handful of indie films catch fire. "It's a different point of view to invest in these projects," Verma-Lallian said. "It's been so hard for people that are not in Hollywood to get into the industry ... We've been able to fund stories that otherwise would have had a hard time getting greenlit by the traditional studio system." Camelback has also produced films "Doin' It" and "Runner," with stars such as Lilly Singh and Owen Wilson. Big blockbuster films such as this year's "The Odyssey" and "The Devil Wears Prada 2" are still the domain of legacy Hollywood studios. But with the number of annual releases dwindling, and with forthcoming consolidation among major players Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery, there's growing opportunity for smaller production companies to hit it big. And while the business of making movies is still generally capital-intensive, recent breakouts including "Backrooms" and "Obsession" have found success on lower budgets. To thread the needle, private capital is buying into production companies, acquiring the infrastructure and diving deeper into the financing structure of entertainment. For example, private equity firm Silver Lake backs talent agency WME, and Blackstone is behind content studio Candle Media. According to consulting firm AlixPartners' 2026 Media and Entertainment Industry Predictions report, private equity investors in media are growing with precision, especially as studios and audience aggregators increasingly become vertically integrated. While the cost of entry has increased, private investors are eager to own intellectual property and audiences, the report said. "Private equity can build scaled, defensible businesses that profit regardless of which large media player owns the next blockbuster, effectively ensuring a central role in the future media value chain," the report read. And while deep-pocketed companies such as Netflix and Amazon continue to raise the bar for content spend to make or acquire new media, traditional studios are finding new ways to keep pace.

Private capital is reshaping Hollywood moviemaking
Europe
BBC Business

Braid-creator Jonathan Blow on making the 'biggest puzzle game ever'

Image source, Thekla, Inc., Arc GamesByLaura CressTechnology reporterPublished4 hours agoFor ten years, Jonathan Blow has been working with a small team on what he believes is "the biggest puzzle game ever made". The American developer is renowned as one of the fathers of the modern indie game movement, creating the genre-defining puzzle-platformer Braid in 2008. Now, a decade on from his last project, The Witness, The Order of the Sinking Star is due to be released on Thursday - a game with roughly 1,500 puzzles that he estimates could take around 500 hours to complete. So why make something the majority of players may never get even halfway through, let alone finish? Image source, Thekla, Inc., Arc Games"Some people decide what to make based on what's practical or what makes business sense," Blow says. "It's never been the way that I think." "I sort of make bad business decisions in a sense...because I let the design dominate that process. But then because we did that, we always have something unique," he says. The game's blurb likens itself to a "game design supercollider" - four worlds viewed from overhead, built on the mechanics of four pre-existing free puzzle games from other designers (with their permission to do so). For example, one world's mechanics, based on those from the free 2014 game Mirror Isles by Alan Hazelden, sees players use mirror reflections to swap places across islands. When combined with the system of another free game created by Hazelden, Skipping Stones to Lonely Homes - where players throw stones into water to create paths - brand-new puzzle opportunities suddenly arise. Image source, Thekla, Inc., Arc GamesHow an AI was tricked into breaking its own rules Taking a risk on making something more experimental is what appears to ultimately drive Blow, who says that as the industry has grown, the culture for developers has also changed. "Somewhere along the way...this idea that the best designers were trying to always make new experiences...just sort of got dropped by the wayside," he says.

Braid-creator Jonathan Blow on making the 'biggest puzzle game ever'