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Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

Latest rainfall data highlights severe threat to rabi crops amid deficits and El Niño concerns

Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are among India’s major producers of rabi crops, including wheat, mustard, gram (chana) and lentil (masur). A strong El Niño may have caused damage to kharif crops in Maharashtra and Karnataka, but its impact on rabi crops could be more widespread and severe. Deficient rainfall has already delayed sowing in several states, while inadequate soil moisture and depleted irrigation reserves threaten both the area sown and yields. Farmers in key rabi-growing regions are now banking on winter rain from Western Disturbances to replenish soil moisture, support germination and reduce dependence on irrigation. The stakes are high because rabi crops, unlike the monsoon-dependent kharif crops, are sown in the winter months and depend on a combination of residual soil moisture, irrigation and winter precipitation. Rain during this period is particularly important for wheat in northern India, where it helps maintain soil moisture during early crop growth. For pulses and oilseeds, which are often cultivated in rain-fed areas, timely precipitation can determine whether farmers sow the crop at all. A prolonged dry spell could therefore reduce acreage, while inadequate moisture during crop growth could lower yields. The rainfall deficit across several major agricultural states is already raising concerns. Rajasthan, received 9 per cent below-normal rainfall in September and has recorded a 55 per cent deficit between October 1 and 18, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data. Maharashtra is also grappling with a severe rainfall shortfall. The state has declared 305 of its 358 talukas, or nearly 85 per cent, drought-hit. It received just 3 per cent of normal rainfall during the first 18 days of October, following a 52 per cent deficit in September. Madhya Pradesh, which recorded 19 per cent excess rainfall in September, has seen a 96 per cent deficit in October so far. Uttar Pradesh, despite a 37 per cent rainfall deficit in October, is relatively better placed because it received 65 per cent excess rainfall in September, helping preserve soil moisture for sowing. Punjab and Haryana, meanwhile, have received a reprieve with October rains after suffering substantial deficits in September. Punjab, which recorded a 64 per cent rainfall shortfall last month, has received 256 per cent above-normal rainfall between October 1 and 18. Haryana, which had a 44 per cent deficit in September, has received 191 per cent excess rainfall during the same period. The precipitation could help farmers begin wheat sowing around its normal window in the first week of November. Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are among India’s major producers of rabi crops, including wheat, mustard, gram (chana) and lentil (masur). A shortfall in rainfall across these states could have implications for the country’s overall foodgrain and oilseed production. Although the Agriculture Ministry has yet to begin releasing its weekly rabi sowing updates, sources said gram acreage in Rajasthan was below 6,000 hectares, while mustard acreage was around one lakh hectares. These figures are significantly below the state’s rabi 2026-27 targets of 21.5 lakh hectares for gram and 37.5 lakh hectares for mustard, indicating that the sowing season is off to a slow start. The vulnerability is particularly acute for pulses and oilseeds, as 60-70 per cent of their rabi acreage is rain-fed and therefore directly exposed to rainfall shortages, said J S Sandhu, a former Agriculture Commissioner. While irrigation facilities will allow cultivation to continue in some areas, water availability remains a major constraint, including in parts of Punjab and Haryana, he said. The outlook for pulses is especially concerning in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan. Sandhu cited estimates from one district in Rajasthan, where the government expects pulses acreage to decline by 10 per cent. The risk to production could rise further if El Niño-related terminal heat causes crops to mature prematurely, shortening the grain-filling period and reducing yields. Insufficient water in reservoirs could also lead to a contraction in the area under major rabi crops, particularly in regions dependent on canal irrigation. Even crops that generally require only one or two rounds of irrigation are now vulnerable, Sandhu said, as inadequate water availability could affect their growth and productivity.

Latest rainfall data highlights severe threat to rabi crops amid deficits and El Niño concerns
North America
Yahoo Finance

Forget VOO. “VT and Chill” Owns 9,000 Stocks and Skips the Lost Decade Problem

U.S. stocks dominated the past decade, but history reveals long stretches where betting on America cost investors dearly in real purchasing power. A single ETF spanning 9,000 stocks across dozens of countries sidesteps the need to predict which market wins… This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them. Two of the most popular ETF investing strategies on the internet have their own catchphrases: “VOO and chill,” referring to the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), and “VT and chill,” referring to the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT). Which is better depends on whom you ask. Warren Buffett, who famously advised investors to “never bet against America,” would probably be comfortable with the U.S.-heavy approach. Spend enough time in the Bogleheads community, though, and you’re more likely to encounter an emphasis on maximum diversification across U.S., developed international, and emerging markets. I think a lot of today’s investors are inevitably influenced by what they’ve experienced. Over the past decade, U.S. stocks have dominated, with growth stocks and especially large technology companies accounting for much of that leadership. Owning international stocks frequently felt like unnecessary baggage. But there have been extended periods when the opposite was true. One particularly useful example is the period from the beginning of 2000 through the end of 2007, part of what investors commonly call the “lost decade” for U.S. stocks. Here’s what happened, and why a globally diversified portfolio resembling VT would have sidestepped much of the problem. Imagine investing $1 million in U.S. stocks on Dec. 31, 1999. The timing could hardly have been worse. Technology stocks had soared during the dot-com boom, valuations were elevated, and enthusiasm surrounding the internet was everywhere. Then the bubble burst. Technology stocks collapsed, the U.S. entered recession in 2001, and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks added another economic shock. The S&P 500 declined for three consecutive calendar years from 2000 through 2002. Stocks eventually recovered, but the next expansion brought its own problems. Housing prices surged, leverage accumulated throughout the financial system, and by 2007 the subprime mortgage crisis was beginning to emerge. The global financial crisis followed in 2008. VT didn’t exist throughout this period, so we can’t directly backtest it. But Vanguard has older mutual funds that provide useful proxies for its underlying exposures: the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Investor Shares (VGTSX) and the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Investor Shares (VEIEX). From Dec. 31, 1999 through Dec. 31, 2007, the difference was substantial according to Testfolio: Inflation makes the comparison even more revealing. In purchasing-power terms, the S&P 500 investor actually lost money:

Forget VOO. “VT and Chill” Owns 9,000 Stocks and Skips the Lost Decade Problem
Asia-Pacific
The Straits Times

From the navy to bullion trading: Start-up founder builds wealth through precious metals, discipline

Ian Chan invested a significant portion of his personal savings and profits from previous investments to start precious metals trading company Big Bullion in December 2025, along with financial support from his family. SINGAPORE – Former naval officer Ian Chan enjoyed his time at sea, although he sometimes struggled with seasickness. “I eventually decided not to continue along that path, which was a difficult decision because serving the nation was something I genuinely wanted to do,” he said. The 25-year-old subsequently invested a significant portion of his personal savings and profits from previous investments to start precious metals trading company Big Bullion in December 2025, along with financial support from his family. The company has generated about $1.5 million in revenue thus far, comprising $1.2 million from investment-grade gold and silver bullion and the remainder from buying back precious metals jewellery for refining. However, getting the business off the ground came with its own challenges, from establishing relationships with reliable suppliers, to sourcing gold and silver inventory, to developing hedging strategies to manage fluctuations in bullion prices. “The experience has taught me the importance of managing business finances carefully, particularly cash flow and working capital,” said Chan. The final-year student at NUS Business School added that he hopes to make investing in precious metals more accessible to younger Singaporeans through social media and educational content that explains how gold and silver pricing, premiums and buyback values work. “Ultimately, our goal is not just to sell precious metals, but also to help customers better understand what they are buying, how pricing works and how physical gold and silver may fit into their broader financial plans,” he said. Chan is engaged to his 25-year-old fiancee, who also helps him with his business. Apart from precious metals, I also invest in a broad range of stocks, including exposure to the US market through indexes such as the S&P 500. Equities give me exposure to businesses around the world and the potential for long-term capital growth.

From the navy to bullion trading: Start-up founder builds wealth through precious metals, discipline
Europe
BBC Business

How backlash against data centres could shape the US midterm elections

Watch: The BBC's Shaimaa Khalil is in Arizona to hear from residents about the expansion of data centres. Now, according to one of his advisers, he is having regular meetings with staff to track their impact and working on new legislation aimed at curbing their rapid expansion across the country. "This happens sometimes, something starts slow and then it goes fast", the senior policy adviser to the Democratic senator told the BBC. The person spoke on condition of anonymity as they are not permitted to speak to the press. The 180-degree turn in this senator's attention was driven almost entirely by a growing wave of public backlash that has seen politicians across the country scramble to keep up. Public sentiment has turned against the expansion of data centres, the large warehouses that store processing power needed for internet activity. Packed with rows and rows of computer chips, sometimes seven-feet high, data centres have turned into more than infrastructure for the internet. They are now the physical embodiment of the recent and explosive growth of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and the varied fears people associate with it. "I don't want to be the guinea pig for this," Indiana resident Angelita Soriano told the BBC. A new Amazon data centre is being built directly across the street from her home. When complete, the 26-building structure will take up more than a square mile in her neighbourhood and maintain 782 diesel-powered generators. Some data centres are even larger. In Ohio, a joint effort between OpenAI, Nvidia, SB Energy and the US Department of Energy is set to build a data centre complex that will stretch for roughly six square miles, the same size as most townships in the US. There are about 3,000 data centres currently operating in the US, with that number potentially doubling in the next few years, according to a report by, external Pew Research Center. Data centres are built through very local rules and permits, meaning federal lawmakers like US senators have little say in the process. Yet, opposition has become so strong so quickly in the US that suddenly, politicians at all levels are now all but required to take a stand. "This isn't just an issue on the left, there is huge pushback among conservatives to data centres," Chloe Autio, an AI policy adviser, said. "Whoever articulates a clear position and sticks to it, in either party, really stands to benefit."

How backlash against data centres could shape the US midterm elections
Europe
BBC Business

How a Chinese-made toy gets to a US retailer

On the underside of most children's toys on sale in the US you'll find the same three words – "Made in China". Nearly eight in 10 toys (78.3%) imported into the country in 2024 came from China, according to US government figures. , external Last year, toys imported from China were worth $9.8bn (£7.4bn), trade figures show. , external With Christmas on the horizon, the toy industry in the US and elsewhere is about to have its busiest time of the year by far. As retailers prepare their stocks for the festive rush, be they online giants or "mom-and-pop" physical stores, the BBC World Service's Follow the Money series traces how a toy gets from a factory in China to the US. And where the money goes. Guangdong province, which neighbours Hong Kong in southern China, is the heart of the country's toy manufacturing industry. In the city of Dongguan workers on the floor of the Mihox factory pop plastic toys out of steel moulds, and pile them into crates ready for painting. The company says it employs more than 800 people and makes around 55 million toys a year for the American market, which represents half of its business. Every toy starts with a design from a customer, such as an American toy company. The factory then makes a prototype, and builds moulds from which plastic parts and other components are formed. Going from the first idea to finished toy takes one to two years, says Melanie Wang from the Mihox sales team. Much of that is the customer going back to the drawing board. "They modified the design again, again, and again to improve it." Once the design is signed off, things move more quickly. A mould takes about a month to make, and the production run lasts about three months. So, how much of the US retail price does the factory get? "About 20%," says Wang.

How a Chinese-made toy gets to a US retailer
Europe
The Guardian

US’s Reagan-era economic promises return as Trump’s AI-fueled growth fantasy

Donald Trump and the Meta CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, listen as Dario Amodei speaks to reporters at the White House on 29 September, after meeting with top executives of AI firms. Photograph: Alex Brandon/APView image in fullscreenDonald Trump and the Meta CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, listen as Dario Amodei speaks to reporters at the White House on 29 September, after meeting with top executives of AI firms. Photograph: Alex Brandon/APUS economyAnalysisUS’s Reagan-era economic promises return as Trump’s AI-fueled growth fantasyEduardo Porter‘Even if AI supercharged the economy, its impact on the government’s finances would be muted’ Back through political history to the age of Ronald Reagan, Republicans have repeatedly promised the US public that tax cuts would pay for themselves, firing up economic growth and filling the government’s coffers. The promise never really panned out. From the Gipper’s day on, the Republicans’ tax cuts inevitably increased the budget deficit. Despite its failure, though, the promise is back, coated in a fine new layer of artificial intelligence pixie dust. It will fail again. The treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, is relying on an AI-laced economy when he promises to deliver annual economic growth of 3% – a rate that, except for the rebound from the Covid pandemic, has been achieved only twice this century. Dreams of AI inflect Donald Trump’s fantasy that “we’re growing at a faster rate than we’ve ever grown before,” which will allow the government to “take care of the 40 trillion” in federal debt “over a period of time”. Financial markets, however, are not buying. Last week, the yield on the 10-year treasury bond surged to its highest in almost a quarter century, more than a full percentage point higher than when Trump launched his misbegotten war against Iran. The war’s inflationary impact is the most immediate cause of rising bond yields. It already persuaded the Fed to raise short-term interest rates. But the treasury market is also being walloped by the US’s unbalanced finances. There is no realistic path for economic growth to generate the tax revenues needed to fix the US’s enormous and growing budget deficit. Investors are demanding more to cover the growing funding gap. Borrowing is likely to become more expensive still. Foreign central banks, which once reliably bought treasuries to build up foreign reserves and manage their exchange rates, have cut back on their exposure to US government debt. The treasury now relies largely on private investors seeking to turn a profit. It finds itself competing for their money with the very AI superscalers on which it is pinning its future hopes, which are borrowing hand over fist to fund the buildout of datacenters to train their agents. Indeed, the US’s finances find themselves in a bit of a negative spiral, as rising bond yields put additional pressure on the budget. Interest payments on the federal debt alone are consuming 3.3% of GDP, up from an average of 2.1% over the preceding 50 years. And Trump’s fiscal management – his One Big Beautiful Bill Act is estimated to add $4.7tn to the federal debt through 2035 – is not making the budget math easier. The deficit already hit 6% of GDP – twice the size Bessent once promised. The Congressional Budget Office projected it will close in on 7% of GDP by 2033. And that was before Trump promised a $5,000 “dividend” to every US adult if the GOP kept control of Congress in the midterms. There is no realistic amount of growth that can fill the fiscal hole that Trump keeps digging. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFPB) sketched out a few scenarios. Assuming the temporary tax cuts in Trump’s 2025 law are made permanent by a future Congress – an assumption that fits the historical pattern – and that the government does not recover the revenue lost when the supreme court struck down its national security tariffs, achieving a budget deficit of 3% of GDP by 2036 would require annual growth of 4.4% over the next decade. Achieving a balanced budget by then would require the economy to expand 7.2% per year. It is not impossible for AI to deliver this kind of growth. Some economists are willing to contemplate scenarios in which artificial intelligence boosts economic growth to 15% per year, by taking over much of the cognitive work usually performed by humans. But these scenarios do not appear likely. According to the CFRB, stabilizing the federal debt would require average growth in total factor productivity – a measure of how efficiently economic inputs are converted into goods and services – to hit 2.5% per year over the next decade. The US has only hit that once since 1959. And that is despite massive productivity gains over the period from electrification, the completion of the federal highway system, the telecommunications revolution and the first wave of IT and automation.

US’s Reagan-era economic promises return as Trump’s AI-fueled growth fantasy
North America
CNBC Finance

Levi Strauss hikes profit guidance after tariff refunds, but its sales outlook is less optimistic

Levi Strauss on Wednesday increased its profit outlook after it received tariff refunds, but gave less rosy revenue guidance. The denim retailer raised its adjusted earnings per share expectation for the full fiscal year to between $1.54 and $1.56, from a previous range of $1.46 to $1.52. Analysts were expecting a range of between $1.52 and $1.59, according to LSEG. The company also lowered its net revenue growth guidance for the full year to 7%, the bottom of its previously provided range of a 7% to 7.5% increase. For its fiscal third quarter, the denim retailer said it saw a 4% increase in net revenues in the Americas, though revenue in the U.S. decreased 1%. It also reported an operating margin of 13.8% for the quarter, compared to 10.8% in the same quarter last year, boosted by tariff refunds that contributed 4.9% to operating margin and gross margin. Levi also said its tariff refunds contributed a 16-cent benefit to its earnings per share, of which 5 cents were "redeployed to support the business." On a call with analysts, CEO Michelle Gass said that money is going toward marketing and promotions during the holiday season. For the three-month period ending Aug. 30, Levi reported net income of $168.6 million, or 43 cents per share, down from $218.1 million, or 55 cents per share, the year prior. Levi said direct-to-consumer net revenues increased 2% in the quarter, but comparable sales were roughly flat. DTC comprised 45% of total net revenue in the third quarter, the company said. On the other hand, wholesale revenues increased 6% for the quarter. "While we delivered strong results across much of the business, our DTC performance fell short of our expectations during the quarter," Gass said on the call with analysts. "We have a clear understanding of what worked and what did not, and we have already taken targeted actions to improve performance." The company previously said it's been seeing broad-based growth across its business segments, including its core Levi's and its premium blue tab. Last month, the company announced John Vandemore will take over as chief financial officer effective Nov. 1, succeeding Harmit Singh, who announced his retirement in April. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis.

Levi Strauss hikes profit guidance after tariff refunds, but its sales outlook is less optimistic
Europe
The Guardian

Judge extends White House access to banned media outlets CNN, MS Now and Politico

Katie Zacharia holds her first press briefing at the White House in Washington DC on Tuesday. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/ReutersView image in fullscreenKatie Zacharia holds her first press briefing at the White House in Washington DC on Tuesday. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/ReutersTrump administrationJudge extends White House access to banned media outlets CNN, MS Now and PoliticoDistrict court judge Timothy Kelly was ruling after Trump administration blocked access to three outlets last month A federal judge ordered the White House on Tuesday to continue allowing journalists from CNN, MS Now and Politico to access the building as the media coalition’s lawsuit against the Trump administration plays out. Timothy Kelly, a district court judge, had on 24 September granted a 14-day reprieve for the news organizations, which six days earlier had been banned by the president in an extraordinary move from entering the White House grounds “as a result of their constant ‘reporting’ FAKE NEWS”. “Defendants (except for President Trump) and their agents, representatives, and all persons or entities acting in concert with them, shall not execute, implement, or enforce the September 18, 2026, decision to revoke the White House ‘hard pass’ press credentials held by employees of CNN, MS NOW, and POLITICO, thereby maintaining the status quo since the Court’s entry of a temporary restraining order on September 24, 2026,” the judge wrote in granting a preliminary injunction requested by the plaintiffs. The organizations filed a lawsuit on 21 September seeking to overturn the ban as a violation of their rights under the US constitution. But that temporary restraining order expired on Tuesday, bringing the media companies into court late last week to ask for a preliminary injunction that would lift the ban during the duration of the lawsuit, which could take months. During arguments at the E Barrett Prettyman federal courthouse in Washington, Kelly seemed inclined to lift the ban indefinitely, telling a lawyer for the federal government that his side had “a notice problem” that was “probably the biggest hurdle” they had to overcome. The Trump White House gave no advance notice to the media companies affected to say that they were at risk of losing their press badges, which the news organizations have said are essential to their ability to cover the administration. While the White House sent letters to the media companies informing them of the ban, they did so post-hoc, after building access had already been cut off, in violation of binding court precedent. In his ruling on Tuesday, Judge Kelly wrote that the plaintiffs “are likely to succeed not only on their due process claim, but also on their two First Amendment claims”. While access to the White House is not guaranteed, court precedent dictates that once it is provided to journalists, it cannot be taken away for editorial or viewpoint-based reasons. During arguments for a preliminary injunction on 8 October, media lawyer Theodore J Boutrous told the judge that Trump had offered a “confession” – in a Time magazine interview last week – that he was banning the media companies explicitly because of the content of their reporting, not because of any other considerations, such as national security. “The case has gotten stronger for the plaintiffs thanks to President Trump,” Boutrous told the judge. The judge seemed to agree. “President Trump’s own comments suggest that he intended the revocation of Plaintiffs’ hard passes to alter their reporting on him, bolstering the case that his action here is sufficient to deter a reporter of ordinary firmness from reporting in the same way she had before,” he wrote. Although the White House has largely adhered to the judge’s prior ruling restoring access on a temporary basis, journalists for CNN and Politico have on occasion been prevented from performing “pool duty” – covering the daily activities of the president – because the administration has interpreted the judge’s temporary restraining order to solely require access to the White House complex, not smaller spaces like Air Force One or the Oval Office.

Judge extends White House access to banned media outlets CNN, MS Now and Politico
North America
CNBC Economy

Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023

Inflation fears intensified in September, pushing the near-term outlook in the New York Federal Reserve's monthly survey to its highest level in nearly 3½ years. The central bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median view for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%, up 0.3 percentage point from August and the highest level since May 2023, when the figure was at 4.1%. Similarly, the survey found that household spending growth is expected to hit 5.5%, also up 0.3 percentage point month over month and the highest since May 2023. The results come with Fed officials grappling over the proper setting of monetary policy as inflation holds well above the central bank's 2% target. Markets largely expect the Federal Open Market Committee to keep benchmark rates steady when it meets later in October. Inflation in August came in lower than expected, according to the Fed's preferred gauge. In recent days several key officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, have said policymakers can afford to take their time when evaluating where interest rates should be set. The survey did find that the outlook is better anchored further out on the timeline. The three-year expectation edged up 0.1 percentage point to 3.3%, while the five-year view was unchanged at 3%. One closely watched bond market indicator known as a breakeven shows the five-year outlook around its highest level of the year at 2.35%. Treasury yields have been soaring in recent weeks, hitting levels not seen since the early part of the century. Surging energy costs are at the core of the inflation problem. Gasoline prices rose nearly 4% in August alone, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while fuel oil surged more than 10%. At the consumer level, utilities have filed for $23.1 billion in increases so far in 2026, according to PowerLines, a nonpartisan consumer advocacy group. The third quarter alone saw requests for $4.5 billion, the largest sum for the period on record. The New York Fed survey found consumers expect gas prices to rise by 4.8% over the next year, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from August. While looking for the Fed to stay put at its next meeting, markets are pricing in a much more aggressive central bank in the years ahead. Fed funds futures contracts are implying a rate of 5.58% in five years. The current funds rate is targeted between 3.75%-4%. Correction: PowerLines is a nonpartisan consumer advocacy group. An earlier version misspelled its name. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services.

Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023