Europe
BBC Business

Three things we've learnt about the UK economy from the IMF

Image source, Getty ImagesByMitchell LabiakBusiness reporterPublished13 October 2026Countries around the world have had their future economic prospects assessed by influential body, the International Monetary Fund (IMF). What the IMF says matters – it aims to keep the global economy stable and its twice-yearly forecasts are one of the most authoritative looks at what is really going on around the world. Yet like all forecasts they can also turn out to be incorrect, so they shouldn't be treated as gospel. The transportation and production of energy in the Middle East has been severely disrupted, causing oil prices to jump and inflation to rise. To calm the rate of price rises, central banks, including the Bank of England, are expected to hike interest rates in the coming months. Despite all this, the IMF said the global economy is doing much better than expected, partly because of the surge of investment into artificial intelligence (AI). And this is good news for the UK. The IMF said its economy would expand by 1.3% in 2026, up from the 1% it predicted in July, before slowing in 2027. A growing economy means companies are investing more and hiring more people while shoppers have more money to spend. A shrinking economy means the reverse is true. There is increased concern about how much money countries are borrowing, but the IMF said the UK is doing better than all other major economies at this. The IMF said the UK "basically stands out, along with India" when it comes to addressing the problem and by 2031 it is projected to have the lowest annual borrowing of the G7 group of countries, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US. Sir Howard Davies, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, said this was largely because the UK has a government with a majority which has committed to tackling the situation, which it is expected to achieve either through tax rises, cuts to public services, or a mix of both. By contrast, he says the US has said little about reducing its deficit, while France and Germany don't have majority governments.

Three things we've learnt about the UK economy from the IMF
Asia-Pacific
The Straits Times

Wall Street tumbles as worries about AI trade and high oil prices weigh

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange before the closing bell in New York City on Oct 16. Wall Street tumbled on Oct 16, with CoreWeave, Broadcom and other AI-related technology stocks under renewed pressure, while a jump in oil prices spooked traders heading into the weekend. The Nasdaq was on track for a loss of over 4% for the week, hammered by concerns that debt-laden AI infrastructure companies may not turn profits in time to repay debts, particularly with borrowing costs expected to rise. Nvidia-backed CoreWeave slumped 12%, bringing its loss over the past five sessions to about 25%. The data centre operator’s bonds also sold off sharply this week, pushing yields above 15%. Broadcom fell 3.6%, and the PHLX chip index sank 2.5%, on track for its eighth straight day of declines. Investors on Oct 16 were also watching oil prices jump more than 3% due to Middle East supply worries. “There is some fear in the market,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at US Bank Wealth Management in ​Seattle. “High oil prices, in particular, tend to weigh on the price/earnings multiple of stocks, and so I think you have investors looking to be cautious into the weekend rather than take more risk.” Adding to concerns around AI financing, some current Anthropic investors and prospective investors are weighing a lower valuation for the company in its upcoming IPO, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The Nasdaq declined 2.19% to 26,128.13 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.55% at 51,891.77 points. Six of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes declined, led lower by communication services, down 2.52%, followed by a 2.38% loss in information technology. The S&P 500 was set for its steepest weekly loss since January, and the Nasdaq was heading for its sharpest weekly fall since June.

Wall Street tumbles as worries about AI trade and high oil prices weigh
Europe
BBC Business

Anthropic flags revenue surge to investors ahead of stock market debut

Artificial intelligence (AI) giant Anthropic saw its revenue surge by 45% to $16.8bn (£12.7bn) in the three months to the end of September, the BBC understands. The figures were revealed by the Claude-developer as it briefed prospective investors on Wednesday at its headquarters in San Francisco as it lays the groundwork for a stock market listing, which is expected to take place before the end of the year. It comes as some tech stocks, including firms that make the chips and other hardware that power data centres, have come under pressure over concerns about the large amounts of money being spent on AI infrastructure. Anthropic's revenue has risen in successive quarters this year, from $4.7bn in the first three months to $11.6bn the following period. The company also reportedly said that it made a profit for the second quarter in a row. Its revenue figures, along with those of rival OpenAI, offer an important gauge of the AI industry's growth and ability to finance the infrastructure needed to develop the technology. Stocks in some US technology companies fell on Wednesday over concerns around investments in AI. In Asia, shares in Japanese tech investment firm Softbank fell by more than 9% on Thursday morning. South Korean semiconductor giants were also down, with Samsung falling by 9.4% and SK Hynix dropping 10.8%. Tech-heavy indexes in the region were also down. South Korea's Kospi was 7.6% lower while Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 4.8%. The falls come after remarks by Hock Tan, the chief executive of US tech manufacturer Broadcom, over AI spending. Tan said at an conference in Singapore on Monday that many investors have "no clue" and have set "extreme expectations only to find out that it's almost like they are in a casino". OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman said in September that his company will not go public this year as it addresses concerns about the technology's safety.

Anthropic flags revenue surge to investors ahead of stock market debut
Europe
The Guardian

Revealed: VW, Ford and Tesla batteries linked to destructive deforestation of indigenous lands

Deforestation in Indonesia linked to nickel mining. Photograph: Didi Hardiana, NGO PuspahamView image in fullscreenDeforestation in Indonesia linked to nickel mining. Photograph: Didi Hardiana, NGO PuspahamMiningRevealed: VW, Ford and Tesla batteries linked to destructive deforestation of indigenous landsMines in supply chains of western carmakers linked to widespread deforestation of primary rainforest in nickel-rich lands inhabited by Tolaki people in Indonesia Volkswagen, Ford and Tesla are among the electric carmakers whose batteries may contain nickel mined in indigenous woodlands plagued by deforestation, an analysis has found, highlighting the struggle to make vehicles that are free from environmental destruction. Corporate disclosures and trade flows from the last two years show mines in the battery supply chains of automotive giants are linked to the loss of trees in Sulawesi, a wildlife hotspot in Indonesia that houses the world’s largest nickel deposits. The metal is widely used in cathodes in car batteries because it boosts energy density and increases range. Ore from the Cahaya and Hengjaya mines was traced through regional smelters and Chinese processing plants run by Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, a cathode manufacturer that supplies CATL, the world’s largest battery maker. Huayou’s corporate reports list US and European carmakers as end-users, while additional corporate files and trade data show a separate route from Huayou to LG, a South Korean group that also supplies battery products to leading carmakers, via Poland. Satellite analysis shows the mines have led to widespread deforestation of primary rainforest in nickel-rich lands inhabited by the indigenous Tolaki people. “We used to ask the forest for protection in return for our offerings,” said Wadimula, a Tolaki elder whose home sits on the edge of the 21,000-hectare Cahaya mining concession. “Destroying it means destroying our own life.” View image in fullscreenWadimula: ‘Destroying [the forest] means destroying our own life.’ Photograph: Stefano ValentinoElectric vehicles are less environmentally harmful than fossil fuel-burning engines, which spew gases that foul the air and heat the planet, but western carmakers have struggled to clean up supply chains for batteries built with critical minerals from Africa, Asia and South America. Environmental groups warn that a failure to curb the boom of material-hungry SUVs is exacerbating the destruction by increasing the quantity mined. Ore from the two mining concessions is sent to a nickel smelter in an industrial complex in Morowali, on Indonesia’s eastern coast, operated by Huayou’s local subsidiary, where limonite is refined into mixed hydroxide precipitate, the primary raw material used to make battery cathodes. In 2024, $606m worth of mixed hydroxide precipitate was shipped from the Morowali plant to ports in China, followed by further shipments worth $470m in 2025. The processed ore was transported overland to Huayou cathode manufacturing sites in Quzhou, near Shanghai, and Yulin, near the border with Vietnam. View image in fullscreenMorowali industrial park on Indonesia’s eastern coast, operated by Huayou’s local subsidiary. Photograph: Stefano ValentinoPublic filings do not disclose specific volumes or timings of sales from Huayou to CATL, which would be needed to directly connect specific ore shipments to car batteries, but Huayou confirmed group-level supplies to CATL in response to a regulatory inquiry by the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2024. Chengdu B&M, a downstream subsidiary of Huayou, has also confirmed the supply of “large quantities” to CATL. The investigation, published in partnership with Voxeurop and other European media partners, traced shipments from mines and refineries in Sulawesi to China, and then again from Huayou cathode and CATL battery factories to the assembly lines of carmakers in the US and Europe. Volkswagen’s facility in Braunschweig, for instance, received a shipment in October 2024 of 24 tonnes of cell modules worth about $390,000, according to data from Volza, a trade platform. The shift to a carbon-free economy is pushing up demand for critical minerals in countries with weak environmental safeguards, though experts have argued the mining boom can be tempered without slowing the shift away from dirty fuels. In 2023, a report found lithium demand in the US transport sector could be reduced by 18% to 66% compared with a business-as-usual scenario, by improving public transport, walking and cycling more, and buying smaller cars. Better recycling could bring demand reductions as high as 92%, the report found.

Revealed: VW, Ford and Tesla batteries linked to destructive deforestation of indigenous lands
Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

Dr Reddy’s launches two new semaglutide brands amid Obeda supply disruptions

FILE PHOTO: Scientific model of the molecule semaglutide which is the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s mega-blockbuster diabetes drug Ozempic and weight-loss drug Wegovy sits in the office of Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen in Hellerup, Denmark, October 3, 2023. | Photo Credit: REUTERS Dr Reddy’s Laboratories has expanded its portfolio of generic versions of Ozempic with two new brands to fill a supply-chain hit to its original Obeda injections, product photographs and marketing materials reviewed by Reuters show. The shift, first reported here by Reuters, follows supply disruptions that hit sales of Dr Reddy’s Obeda injection in India’s fast-growing market for semaglutide, which is the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drug Wegovy. Shares in Dr Reddy’s fell by as much as 2% after the Reuters report, before paring some losses to settle 1.4% lower. Dr Reddy’s launched Obeda, a generic version of Novo Nordisk’s diabetes drug, in India in March and later in Canada after semaglutide lost patent protection, setting off a race among domestic drugmakers to launch lower-cost versions. The drugmaker said at a media briefing on Friday that after encountering manufacturing issues with Obeda in July, it had shifted production to a partner’s facility to maintain supplies. Dr Reddy’s said that its Obeda Pro and Obeda Plus would remain available in the market and could be used for diabetes treatment and weight management. Obeda Pro and Obeda Plus are manufactured by a different firm than the Obeda injectable, supplies of which were halted after Dr Reddy’s found an impurity in the active ingredient. Several distributors told Reuters that Dr Reddy’s is likely to discontinue Obeda and will focus on Obeda Pro and Obeda Plus. “The company said there were some technical issues with Obeda injectable, and they recalled stocks from us. They said they would instead supply Obeda Pro,” a drug distributor said. “When we started off on semaglutide, we basically had two sources for the product. One was our own product and one through the partner product,” M.V. Ramana, chief executive of Global Generics, said on Friday. Having multiple semaglutide brands should not be interpreted as evidence of one replacing another, the company told Reuters earlier.

Dr Reddy’s launches two new semaglutide brands amid Obeda supply disruptions
Europe
BBC Business

Ship attack reports near Hormuz reach record high as oil exports slow

ByJoshua Cheetham, Thomas Copeland and Alison Benjamin, BBC VerifyPublished6 hours agoThe number of ships that have reported being attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz has hit a record high, BBC Verify analysis of data from a UK maritime agency shows. Twelve vessels were attacked between 5 and 11 October - the largest number of weekly strikes reported to the UK's Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency since the US-Israeli war with Iran began. The previous week saw 10 ships reporting attacks. Six of the vessels were struck last Sunday, according to the UKMTO - a one-day high. So far this week, there have been four reported attacks. As the number of strikes has risen, the recovery in oil shipments through the strait seen last month has slowed, industry data suggests. BBC Verify collated incident reports published by the UKMTO on its website and created a timeline based on the first date cited in each report. This is approximate because some incidents use the date of the attack and some the date on which it was reported. Experts say Tehran has been attacking ships in an effort to assert greater control over the waterway as the US military has increased the number of tankers it is shepherding through the south of the strait to evade Iranian strikes. Iran is also carrying out more attacks on vessels further away from the Strait of Hormuz, according to experts. The US military's Central Command, which oversees operations in the Middle East, posted on social media that despite the attacks "commercial traffic continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz with co-ordinated protection from US forces and regional partners". The aftermath of one of Sunday's six reported attacks was captured in verified footage showing the Nicaragua-flagged tanker Petro Dolphin on fire, as filmed by the crew on a smaller boat nearby. The vessel was struck by a drone close to the Sohar Anchorage, Oman, more than 250km (150 miles) from the strait, according to the maritime intelligence firm Vanguard. Eleven Indian seafarers were rescued but two are still missing, the Forward Seamen's Union of India said. Attacks have continued this week with the container ship GFS Pride sinking after a strike by an unknown projectile in the strait on Tuesday. Twenty-one crew were safely evacuated.

Ship attack reports near Hormuz reach record high as oil exports slow
North America
CNBC Finance

FAA warns U.S. airlines of safety risks over Saudi Arabia after attacks

The Federal Aviation Administration told U.S. airlines to exercise caution when flying in or around Saudi Arabia after deadly attacks claimed by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, which have shut down the airport in the Saudi capital. King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, remains closed as of Monday after strikes that started last week. The attacks escalated Saturday, when a projectile struck a passenger terminal at the airport, officials said, killing at least 12 people and wounding more than 300. The U.S., Australia and other countries advised citizens against travel to the region. The FAA late Sunday said pilots should "exercise caution" in or around Saudi Arabia "due to safety-of-flight risks associated with ongoing military activities" and navigation systems. It said the threats could be a potential risk "to aircraft at all altitudes." The FAA's warning is in effect until Dec. 10. Most U.S. airlines don't fly to Saudi Arabia, but the country's flights and passenger counts had climbed in recent years. The route between Riyadh to Jeddah in the country's west was the fifth-busiest in the world last year, according to aviation-data firm OAG. Delta Air Lines had been scheduled to launch its first nonstop flight from Atlanta to Riyadh on Oct. 23 but the carrier on Monday said it would delay that service until March. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis.

FAA warns U.S. airlines of safety risks over Saudi Arabia after attacks
North America
CNBC Economy

Americans' debt problems are flashing a warning not seen since the Great Recession

The ability of U.S. families to stay current on their debts worsened over the past three years, hitting levels not seen since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. In the central bank's Survey of Consumer Finances, researchers found that while wealth disparities narrowed somewhat, the ability to meet debt payments deteriorated significantly. "Families were more likely to be behind on their financial obligations than at any point since the 2010 survey," stated the survey, a data-rich document the Fed releases every three years to chronicle the nation's financial health. The country in 2010 was just emerging from what became known as the Great Recession, a period that ran from December 2007 to June 2009. A collapse in the subprime mortgage market resulted in contagion across the largest financial institutions in the U.S. and the world, sending unemployment at one point to 10%. According to the new findings, the portion of families behind on loan payments at the end of 2025 soared from about 12% in the prior survey to nearly 20%, a gain of some 67%. Those behind by two months or more also accelerated considerably, moving to more than 8% from 5% in 2022. While the report covered the period through 2025, Americans' concerns over their finances have persisted. A New York Fed survey released earlier this week showed that households reported their financial situations had worsened from a year ago and were likely to be weaker in the year ahead. Friday's Fed report showed the share of debt to income also posted a large gain. Families with payment-to-income ratios of greater than 40% jumped to 8.6%, up from 6.5% in 2022 and the highest level since 2013. At the same time, the net worth of higher earners soared, with those in the top income group seeing their median net worth rise 31%. The report covers a period where the economy continued to grow but with inflation rates not seen since the early 1980s. Amid that climate, the Fed found that real median, or midpoint, family income increased 7% but average income dropped 6%. "Families in the lower ends of the income and net worth distributions saw modest increases in median and mean income, while families in the upper ends saw declines," the report stated. "These patterns indicate that income inequality decreased slightly between surveys." The report noted that income gains were particularly strong with families aged 75 or older while tumbling 25% for those aged 35 to 44, which the Fed attributed to declines in capital gains income for that group.

Americans' debt problems are flashing a warning not seen since the Great Recession
Europe
The Guardian

‘People’s dignity, and democracy, is at stake’: meet the economist ditching ideology for reality

In Anti-Fascist Economics, Isabella Weber calls on governments to defeat fascism by making life’s necessities more affordable. Photograph: Steffen Roth/The GuardianView image in fullscreenIn Anti-Fascist Economics, Isabella Weber calls on governments to defeat fascism by making life’s necessities more affordable. Photograph: Steffen Roth/The GuardianEconomicsInterview‘People’s dignity, and democracy, is at stake’: meet the economist ditching ideology for realityMichael SegalovExclusive: Isabella Weber prescribes a common-sense solution to poverty, inequality and fascism – making life’s essentials affordable for all Fri 16 Oct 2026 00.00 EDTLast modified on Fri 16 Oct 2026 08.20 EDTSharePrefer the Guardian on GoogleThe trouble with economists, Isabella Weber believes, is they do not behave like dentists. They obsess over ideological purity and are inflexible when searching for solutions, regardless of society’s symptoms. Dentists have no such pretensions – patients have little patience for dogma when in insufferable pain. John Maynard Keynes, Weber clarifies in the canteen of the Wissenschaftskolleg zu Berlin (Berlin’s Institute for Advanced Study), was the first to draw this dental comparison – and she is running with it. As she sees it, the symptoms could not be more severe. “The status quo for the majority is entirely unbearable,” while extreme inequality and corporate concentration has reached levels “simply incompatible with democracy” worldwide. This is exacerbated by a climate crisis that “generates massive windfall profits” for big business as the “ecological foundations of our lives disintegrate”. All the while the far right is making hay. This analysis echoes much mainstream liberal and left-leaning thinking. But Weber is concerned that her peers in the economic establishment act as if they are oblivious. “What’s common sense to most people is not to economists,” she says, and as such our economic system has “promised but not delivered”. She reels off disturbing statistics that highlight the growing disparities between haves and have nots. “As economists, we should do better. People’s dignity, and democracy, is at stake.” In progressive circles, Weber, 38, is quickly becoming one of the most sought-after economists of her generation. An associate professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and an associate at Harvard’s Fairbank Center, she advises policymakers in the US, Europe and Latin America. She popularised the term “greedflation” to describe profiteering during recent cost of living crises. Her new book, Anti-Fascist Economics, is the culmination of years of research into inequality and inflation, and a lifelong commitment to fighting fascism. As she writes: “If we understand economics as the study of the material foundations of society, then economics is key to averting the catastrophes in front of us.” View image in fullscreenIsabella Weber in Berlin’s Institute for Advanced Study in September. Photograph: Steffen Roth/The GuardianWeber is calling on fellow economists to “abandon ideology” and develop a “big tent economic policy” that can counter an ascendant far right. Their gains, she argues, are not the result of a particularly compelling offer, but a direct consequence of traditional political parties refusing to acknowledge the endemic hardship facing their constituents, and the absence of a coherent economic vision from progressives, liberals and the centre right. “Currently, only the extreme right is willing to say yes, something is broken, and a different present and future is possible,” Weber says. “We can’t leave an alternative to this dystopia to them.” In Anti-Fascist Economics, she pitches a solution: make life’s necessities affordable. That is housing, transport, food, water, energy, healthcare: the stuff humanity depends on. “Fascism is rising from frustration, born out of a crisis of livelihoods,” says Weber. “So, we need to reclaim these essentials now.” Progressive politicians are already heeding her instructions. At a meeting of city mayors last month, the New York mayor, Zohran Mamdani, outlined how Weber’s work, which he had followed for years, had informed his affordability agenda in the city: free buses, universal childcare, rent caps, public groceries. Weber has consulted with other US politicians – Elizabeth Warren, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders – and UK ministers including Ed Miliband. The speech of the British prime minister, Andy Burnham, to Labour conference last month was Weberesque in its messaging. “Homes. Water. Energy. Transport. Care. Broken up and sold off,” he declared from the lectern. “Economic control diminished by selling off essentials.” View image in fullscreenAndy Burnham’s Labour conference speech was distinctly Weberesque in its messaging. Photograph: Phil Noble/ReutersWhile it is a simple slogan, making the essentials affordable is a complex policy challenge. Each sector has unique properties, and functions differently from place to place. Weber argues that any and all levers should be pulled in pursuit of putting this floor under livelihoods, from novel approaches to centuries-old thinking. “The goal isn’t more state intervention,” she clarifies, “it’s just a tool, as are profits and markets to ensure affordability. In economics, we tend to have these overarching models and an inclination for silver bullets. I’m arguing not for universal solutions but nitty gritty detail.” Take food, for example. At every stage of the value chain from source to table, she is urging governments to identify and implement interventions to keep prices down. At one end, four multinationals control between 70% and 90% of global grain trading (with profits that “thrive on volatility”). This does not optimise affordability. Her proposal? Create public buffer stock systems – publicly owned entities that can buy and sell grain into its market, not with the goal of maximising profits, but stabilising prices to protect producers and consumers. Keynes made this case a century ago. A global public option would be a diplomatic nightmare, so Weber champions an orthodontist’s approach. She advised the South African government to pool regional buying power. “If the African Union developed its own buffer stock system, already this joint procurement would get them better terms.” Then, when prices are low, it could purchase; during peaks, it could sell to stabilise its market and provide regional insulation to shocks. At the other end of the chain is retail. Weber cites the Mexican government’s canasta básica policy, through which retailers voluntarily cap the total price of a basket of two-dozen essential goods. In return, the government offers advantageous tariff rates and tax relief, “and at a weekly press conference lauds those who do a good job and calls out those who don’t”. In Mexico’s 2024 presidential election, the governing Morena party increased its vote share from 55% to 61%.

‘People’s dignity, and democracy, is at stake’: meet the economist ditching ideology for reality