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Europe
DW Economy

Trump's diesel deal with Russia is unlikely to significantly lower global fuel prices despite expectations of rapid relief

As the world's largest diesel exporter, the US benefits from high prices. At home, however, consumers are feeling the strain of rising living costs. Why Donald Trump's deal with Russia is unlikely to change that. Diesel supplies are under pressure and analysts are skeptical Trump's diesel deal with Russia will lower pricesImage: Patrick T. Fallon/AFPAdvertisementWith or without a deal with Russia, diesel prices on global markets are unlikely to fall significantly anytime soon. That is the assessment of experts interviewed by DW regarding the latest fuel-supply agreement between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. "The main reason for high diesel prices is the war in Iran and the simultaneous disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait," said Samina Sultan, a foreign trade expert at the German Economic Institute (IW) in Cologne. The situation has led to production outages and made fuel shipments "more expensive, less secure and more difficult," she said. Trump's deal with Russia also has an additional geopolitical dimension, Sultan said: "It causes the wars in Ukraine and Iran to become completely intertwined." Things are looking up, though. Roughly 13.5 million barrels of crude oil are once again flowing through the Strait of Hormuz a day, according to shipping and commodities analytics firm Kpler. But for refined products such as diesel, volumes remain far lower at around 677,000 barrels per day, compared with 3.6 million barrels before the war. Carsten Fritsch, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank, also attributes the price increases to the wars. "If nothing changes in Ukraine and the Middle East, I see very few ways to resolve these supply bottlenecks," he said. In a social media post on October 9, Trump announced that he would temporarily suspend some sanctions on Russia and begin importing Russian diesel. Russia confirmed the arrangement. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian state news agency TASS on October 13 that supplying diesel fuel was "in the interests of Russia, the United States and global energy markets."

Trump's diesel deal with Russia is unlikely to significantly lower global fuel prices despite expectations of rapid relief
Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

Musk says SpaceX raised $40 billion in debt deal, predicts neocloud shakeout

Elon Musk said on Sunday that ‌SpaceX had closed $40 billion in debt financing for graphics processing units. | Photo Credit: Allison Robbert Elon Musk said on Sunday that ‌SpaceX had closed $40 billion in debt financing for graphics processing units, underscoring the ​soaring cost of building AI computing capacity. Musk, in a post on ⁠X, attributed the successful debt raise to the company's investment-grade status and revenue from its Starlink satellite internet and launch businesses. It was not immediately clear from Musk’s post what he ‌meant by the deal being “closed” or whether investors had agreed to pricing for the debt. "This is primarily callable debt for GPU purchases that will arrive ‌in Q1 and Q2. Not a major factor this quarter," Musk ‌said in ⁠the post. For the fourth quarter, the company expects $35 billion to $40 ⁠billion in capital expenditure, according to Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen. Reuters reported earlier this month that SpaceX was in talks with banks and asset managers to raise $40 billion for the purchase of Nvidia artificial ​intelligence chips. The funding highlights the enormous ‌capital requirement of the AI boom, as technology companies race to secure advanced processors and build out the computing infrastructure needed to support AI development. Musk said debt markets "have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t ‌have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers." As a result, he predicted ​neocloud companies would face significant consolidation and failures, and later said SpaceX won't buy any neoclouds, calling it “pointless.” Unlike larger cloud firms that serve ⁠a broad range of industries, neoclouds such as Nebius and CoreWeave mostly focus on tech customers and offer capacity tailored for AI technology. Investors have started betting against US neocloud ‌and data center companies, after fears that their debt-fueled AI buildout was becoming unsustainable sparked a selloff.

Musk says SpaceX raised $40 billion in debt deal, predicts neocloud shakeout
Europe
The Guardian

People in the US: what is your personal ‘recession indicator’?

Do you feel like the US is experiencing a recession? Photograph: Nam Y Huh/APView image in fullscreenDo you feel like the US is experiencing a recession? Photograph: Nam Y Huh/APUS economyPeople in the US: what is your personal ‘recession indicator’?We’d like to hear about whether you feel like the US is in a recession and what you think signals such a downturn Nearly two-thirds of Americans think the US is experiencing a recession, according to a new Harris Poll conducted for the Guardian. By the typical definition of a recession – when a country’s economic growth is in the negative for two consecutive quarters – the US is not experiencing one. Still, Americans are facing higher prices and a stagnant job market, which for many feels like a downturn. We want to hear from Americans: do you feel like the US is experiencing a recession? What is your so-called personal “recession indicator”, or a signal in your everyday life that points to an incoming economic slump? It could be seen in your job or at your local grocery store, something you notice at your children’s school or out in your community. Tell us about it below.

People in the US: what is your personal ‘recession indicator’?
North America
CNBC Finance

JetBlue’s new domestic first class, BlueFirst, is now on sale

JetBlue's new domestic first class, BlueFirst, is now available for booking on flights across more than 30 routes, the airline said Thursday. This option will be available on domestic flights that are not currently served by the airline's lie-flat Mint business class, which it offers on longer flights. It's part of an overhaul of the carrier's fare options, which will include basic options that don't come with things like seat assignments, a standard option, and a "flex" option, which is refundable and more easily changed. The new first-class section comes as JetBlue seeks to return to steady profitability by growing its higher-priced offerings amid strong demand for more expensive and roomier seats. The first flight with BlueFirst seats will be on Dec. 8, between Boston and Fort Lauderdale, Florida, followed by routes between Fort Lauderdale and New York's LaGuardia Airport, with additional flights being rolled out in the following weeks and months. JetBlue is offering some introductory fares for BlueFirst seats for select flights, including a $299 flight from Boston to Fort Lauderdale, a $249 option from New York to Fort Lauderdale and a $299 option from New York to Liberia, Costa Rica. The first-class tickets will offer seats that recline up to 5 inches and have up to 7 inches more legroom than Main seats, JetBlue said. Other perks include Bluetooth-connected seatback screens, food and beverage options, Group 1 boarding and expedited security. "We designed BlueFirst to deliver a more accessible first-class experience that combines the thoughtful hospitality and service customers expect from JetBlue with exceptional value and comfort. We're excited that customers can now start making BlueFirst part of their travel plans," JetBlue CEO Joanna Geraghty said in a news release. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis.

JetBlue’s new domestic first class, BlueFirst, is now on sale
Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

Crude oil near $120, to intensify headwinds for economy, but tailwinds likely to reduce pressure

With brent crude nears $120 as escalating Saudi-Houthi tensions, Indian economy sets to face severe headwinds. However, economists feel there are tailwinds too which could provide some comfort to government finance managers. Union Budget has estimated fertiliser subsidy at ₹1.70 lakh crore. However, according to Controller General of Accounts (CGA), outgo has already crossed ₹1.03 lakh crore in first five months. Recently businessline reported, quoting senior government official, that total outgo is likely to cross ₹3 lakh crore or even touch ₹3.5 lakh crore. At the same time, though prices of domestic LPG cylinder revised upward, there is still under recovery of around ₹327 a cylinder. According to, D K Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor at EY India, given ongoing crisis in West Asia, crude prices are likely to remain elevated in the range of $115 to $120/bbl. for some time. This will have an adverse impact on real GDP growth whereas CPI inflation is likely to increase. The RBI’s projections for the second half of 2026-27 were based on a baseline crude price assumption of $95/bbl. “A sustained increase by a margin of $20/bbl., in global crude prices compared to the baseline assumption, for the remaining part of the fiscal year is likely to result in a marginally lower real GDP growth for 2026-27 from 7.1 per cent to 7 per cent whereas CPI inflation is likely to be higher by a margin of about 0.5 per cent points, from 5.2 per cent to 5.7 per cent,” he said. Further, this implies that the increase in nominal GDP growth would increase whereas real GDP growth would be lower as compared to RBI’s October 2026 projections. “This will have a positive impact on GoI’s tax revenues if existing tax buoyancies are realised,” he added. Sunil Kumar Sinha, Professor of Economics at Institute for Development and Communication estimated that possible increase in fertiliser subsidy can widen the 2026-27 fiscal deficit by 0.4-0.5 per cent of GDP. However, there are channels that can cushion this impact. Firstly, “the Reserve Bank of India has transferred a bumper dividend of ₹2.87 lakh crore. Secondly, tax collections have been buoyant clocking a growth of nearly 13 per cent by mid-September 2026. Thirdly, disinvestment and monetization, which had mostly missed the budget targets in the past, is doing well this fiscal. Close to 70 per cent of the full-year target has been realized by end August 2026. And lastly, the availability of ₹1 lakh crore economic stabilisation fund created specifically for absorbing global macroeconomic shocks. Therefore, “fiscal deficit target of 4.3 per cent of GDP still appears achievable and if at all there is slippage then it will not go beyond 4.4–4.5 per cent of GDP,” he said. D K Pant, Chief Economist at India Ratings & Research is cautiously optimist. “There will be impact on account of higher fuel prices as under recovery of oil marketing companies on petrol, diesel and LPG to go and then higher outgo on account of fertilser subsidy. However, with tax receipts (barring central excise), non-tax revenue along with possible higher collection higher than budget estimates from disinvestment and asset monetization, overall fiscal arithmetic unlikely to see significant,” he said. Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.

Crude oil near $120, to intensify headwinds for economy, but tailwinds likely to reduce pressure
Europe
The Guardian

Tech market sell-off deepens amid fears over US inflation and AI debt

A Hana Bank screen shows the Kopsi index with a downward graph line. The tech-heavy South Korean index fell 8% overnight in Asia, triggering circuit breakers and halting stock trades. Photograph: Lee Jin-man/APView image in fullscreenA Hana Bank screen shows the Kopsi index with a downward graph line. The tech-heavy South Korean index fell 8% overnight in Asia, triggering circuit breakers and halting stock trades. Photograph: Lee Jin-man/APStock marketsTech market sell-off deepens amid fears over US inflation and AI debtChip makers and tech investors such as Samsung and SoftBank plunge as potential interest rate hikes spook markets An accelerating sell-off of AI-linked shares has hit global markets, as fears over rising inflation and future interest rate hikes spooked traders already wary of the heavily indebted sector. South Korea’s benchmark Kospi 200 index, which is heavily skewed towards the companies that make memory chips, fell more than 8% overnight to a six-month closing low, triggering circuit breakers that brought trading to a halt at various points. Some of those semiconductor stocks, such as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, plunged nearly 11% and 9.5% respectively. The index closed at a six-month low, down 8.1%. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped by 4.9% on Thursday, after an 11% slump in the memory chip maker Kioxia and a 10% drop in SoftBank, a big investor in the ChatGPT owner, OpenAI. The falls followed a slide on Wall Street during the previous day’s session, where the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.9% and the S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, its worst performance since July. US stocks fell further when trading resumed on Thursday. The Nasdaq dropped another 1.4% at the start of trading, with Dell, which makes datacentre servers, and Coherent, which manufactures components for AI datacentres, leading the early fallers. The sell-off came after US data on Wednesday showed stateside inflation jumped to a higher-than-expected 3.7% in September, marking the fastest increase in prices since the consumer price index (CPI) rate hit a three-year peak of 4.2% in May. Fresh data on Thursday showing US producers increased their prices by 6.3% year on year in September – the sharpest rise since December 2022 – added to inflationary jitters. The figures have rattled investors who are now expecting fresh interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve, with some punters pricing in another increase as soon as the end of the month. “Markets have just had an incredibly tumultuous 24 hours, as a strong US CPI print was then followed up with mounting fears around the AI trade,” Deutsche Bank analysts led by Jim Reid said. Worryingly, the figures showed this was not about fuel costs, which have been pushed up by geopolitical tensions including the ripple effects from the US war on Iran. Reid said: “This wasn’t just an energy surge driving prices higher, as there were broad-based moves across the consumer basket.”

Tech market sell-off deepens amid fears over US inflation and AI debt
North America
CNBC Finance

Southwest is overhauling its frequent flyer program. Here's what's changing

Southwest Airlines is scrapping its two-tier loyalty program starting next year and instead rolling out silver, gold and platinum levels that are similar to what other carriers offer, as the once-quirky airline seeks to increase revenue and reward its biggest spenders. Southwest executives have been overhauling the airline, getting rid of longtime customer perks like two free checked bags and open seating. It's now charging for some of those options, like rivals have been doing for years. Along with the shift from two to three loyalty levels, the carrier is also changing the names of its tiers. Under the old version, travelers could be classified into A-List or A-List Preferred, which was the higher level. "If you think about A-List and A-List Preferred, we don't even have [boarding] groups A, B and C anymore," Tony Roach, Southwest chief customer and brand officer, said in an interview. "So it was time to do a refresh to somewhat incorporate all the changes to seating and all these new experiences that we've been adding." Customers can earn 1 Tier Qualifying Point, or TQP, per $1 spent on Southwest co-branded credit cards with Chase. Here are the new status requirements: Silver status members will board in Group 1, while Gold members will board before Group 1. Platinum members will board before both Gold members and Group 1. Platinum tier also has unlimited Companion Pass trips. Southwest's Companion Pass — which lets a designated person fly for free, minus taxes and fees, with a traveler who has that perk — is also changing. Companion Pass holders that have them in their accounts will be able to hold onto them for the duration of their term. But starting with the 2027 earning year, Companion Pass benefits will be earned through TQPs or qualifying flights, by hitting a milestone reward or with Platinum status. Currently, a Rapid Rewards member has to earn at least 135,000 qualifying points or 100 one-way flights to qualify for the pass. The airline is also expanding its partnerships with international airlines and building its first airport lounges. Southwest on Thursday offered a peek into the new lounges, which it has named Icon, and is working on with its credit card partner, Chase. The carrier is building Icon lounges in four cities around the U.S., with others in the works. Southwest is also adding benefits for customers that are in between status tiers, similar to what American Airlines offers. For example, after earning 20,000 points or taking 15 qualifying flights, customers can choose between 2,000 more Rapid Rewards points or two coupons to select a "preferred" seat, which is a standard legroom seat that's closer to the front of the plane or a more popular aisle or window seat.

Southwest is overhauling its frequent flyer program. Here's what's changing
Europe
BBC Business

People playing loud music on buses could face £100 fine

Image source, Getty ImagesByMarc Ashdown, Business correspondent and Nick Edser, Business reporterPublished3 hours agoPassengers who play loud music on buses in England could be fined up to £100 under an attempt by the government to crack down on antisocial behaviour. The measures also seek to tackle littering, vaping and threatening behaviour to help improve journeys on all forms of public transport. Offenders on buses could be issued with the fines under new powers for local authorities. A national campaign asking rail passengers "share the carriage, not the noise" is also being launched. The proposed crackdown has been welcomed by campaigners, but some have questioned how it can be enforced. "We've all been on the train when someone starts blasting music or videos from their phone. It gets on your nerves and can quickly spoil the journey," said Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Under existing powers, those who are asked to stop and refuse could be removed from a train or fined up to £1,000. The phenomenon has been given many terms - including loudcasting or sodcasting - and in recent years, Ofcom, YouGov and Transport for London (TfL) have all published polls showing the vast majority of people dislike it. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said small changes in behaviour "can make a massive difference to people's experience on public transport". The government said it had issued new guidance to local authorities on powers - which were introduced earlier this year - to help them crackdown on loud music and other antisocial behaviour on buses in England. The government says bus drivers will not be responsible for enforcing the new rules. It says authorised officers, including Transport Safety Officers and the Police, will deal with the incidents. The campaign will be launched across operator websites, social media, and in carriages. The government said this would end the current "patchwork" of approaches across different rail operators, and help create "a clear, consistent message across the network". The general secretary of the TSSA transport union, Maryam Eslamdoust, said tackling antisocial behaviour on public transport was "a step in the right direction".

People playing loud music on buses could face £100 fine
Europe
BBC Business

What is the Budget and what could be in it?

Image source, Dan Kitwood/Getty ImagesPublished28 September 2026Updated 1 hour agoChancellor John Healey will set out Labour's tax and spending plans when he delivers his first Budget on 28 October. He has refused to rule out tax increases after acknowledging government borrowing costs are at "historic highs". Before the 2024 general election, Labour promised not to increase three big revenue earners for the government: income tax, National Insurance and VAT. In his statement, delivered to MPs in the House of Commons, Healey will set out how the government plans to raise or lower taxes. Alongside the Budget, the Treasury will publish details about the measures and their costs. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which monitors government spending, will also publish an assessment of the health of the UK economy and a forecast of what it thinks will happen in the future. The run-up to the Budget typically generates speculation about what might be in it, which the government is trying to keep to a minimum this year. Healey and Prime Minister Andy Burnham face a difficult balancing act, trying to offer more support to households and meet commitments on defence spending, while also sticking to Labour's manifesto commitments on tax and the government's self-imposed fiscal rules. The previous chancellor, Rachel Reeves, set out two main rules, which the new leadership has vowed to follow. These are: In March, the OBR calculated that the first rule would be met with a gap - or headroom - of £23.6bn. However, this headroom is expected to have shrunk. Analysts are divided on how much it may have fallen by. KPMG believe it could have fallen to £12bn, mainly due to the rise in government borrowing costs this year. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) also forecasts that debt interest will significantly reduce headroom. But it also suggests higher inflation could push up tax revenues as pay rises drag people into higher tax thresholds.

What is the Budget and what could be in it?