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Shipping rebounds in Strait of Hormuz one week after U.S.-Iran deal – but fragile confidence threatens recovery

Shipping traffic is recovering a week after the U.S. and Iran signed a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — but a renewed attack on a cargo ship Thursday threw fresh uncertainty over the fragile passage, halting the United Nations' evacuation plan and sending some tankers into reverse. In the week following the ceasefire announcement, 125 transits were recorded between June 15-21, marking the highest weekly total since the war began in late February, as tankers rushed to move stored Gulf crude before the 60-day truce window expires. On June 24, AXS Marine recorded 62 commercial vessel crossings, the highest single-day count since the war started, but only equivalent to 53% of the traffic on the same day last year. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Wednesday declared that all ships must use only its northern route and comply with Iranian routing instructions. Hours later, the Ever Lovely — a Singapore-flagged Evergreen container ship — was struck on its starboard side by a projectile off the Omani coast. A U.S. official said the IRGC had carried out the strike. It was the first attack on a cargo vessel since the ceasefire took effect. Located in the gulf between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is recognized as one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints. The narrow waterway typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic. Shipowners are left navigating two competing authorities with no agreed rules, with a northern corridor under Iranian control and a southern passage through Omani waters. The standard pre-war commercial lane remains closed due to mines. Iran warned it would take action against ships not using its northern route or coordinating with Iranian authorities. The U.S. and Oman backed a separate southern corridor, with Oman issuing navigational guidance and American Navy providing naval oversight. Companies are confronted with a difficult choice: take the risk to transit, or hold back and potentially cede ground to rivals willing to take that risk. Bruce Tan, a Singapore-based electronics manufacturer who held back deliveries to Middle East clients for four months, said he had begun moving goods through the corridor again, but only in small batches, in case the Strait closes again. Tan is also routing some orders through alternative corridors as a hedge against another closure. Aristidis Alafouzos, CEO of Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp, a crude oil shipping company headquartered in Greece, said he doesn't expect Thursday's attack on a ship in the Gulf of Oman to "significantly change" the trend of transits through the waterway. "We've seen a large increase, especially on the crude oil passages, and I think this is set to continue and maybe this one-off event isn't enough to really disrupt the recent events of the large exports of Kuwaiti and Emirati crude oil from the Gulf," Alafouzos told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Friday. "The one big missing factor is the Saudis. For now, we haven't seen them export almost anything from inside the Arabian Gulf and everything is coming from Yanbu in the Red Sea."

Shipping rebounds in Strait of Hormuz one week after U.S.-Iran deal – but fragile confidence threatens recovery
Asia-Pacific
The Straits Times

Singapore retail sales grow for fourth straight month but at slower pace

The estimated total retail sales value in Singapore in May stood at $4.5 billion. SINGAPORE – Consumers continued to spend more in May than they did a year earlier, extending retail sales growth to a fourth straight month, although the pace of growth slowed from April and spending weakened from the previous month. Retail sales rose 3 per cent year on year to an estimated $4.5 billion in May, down from the 5.4 per cent growth recorded in April, according to data released by the Singapore Department of Statistics (SingStat) on July 6. The slower pace of growth comes after retail sales accelerated in April, although consumer spending remained supported by Singapore’s resilient labour market, DBS Bank senior economist Chua Han Teng told The Straits Times. “Still-resilient and healthy labour market conditions, as reflected in low unemployment and continued household income growth, supported retail sales despite uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict during the second quarter,” he said. Excluding motor vehicles, parts and accessories, retail sales grew 3.7 per cent year on year, moderating from the 4.5 per cent increase recorded in April. On a month-on-month basis, retail sales in May were weaker than in April, falling 2.3 per cent after accounting for seasonal factors. Excluding motor vehicles, parts and accessories, May sales declined 1.8 per cent from April. Online transactions accounted for 15.1 per cent of total retail sales, up from 14.7 per cent in April. Most retail industries posted year-on-year growth, led by recreational goods, where sales jumped 23.6 per cent. Watch and jewellery sales rose 11.7 per cent, while petrol service stations recorded a 9.5 per cent increase, mainly because of higher petrol prices. Chua said that stronger sales of recreational goods as well as watches and jewellery reflected resilient consumer spending despite broader economic uncertainty during the second quarter. The increase at petrol service stations marked the third consecutive month of growth, although he expects the pace to moderate as oil prices ease following the cooling of US-Iran tensions since mid-June. “Growth should moderate as petrol prices ease following the de-escalation of US-Iran tensions since mid-June,” he said.

Singapore retail sales grow for fourth straight month but at slower pace
Asia-Pacific
The Straits Times

No more US Fed hints: How Warsh could change the way Singapore analysts read markets

Under the leadership of new Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh, the US central bank aims to adopt a less predictable communication style, making it harder for Wall Street to guess future interest rate moves. SINGAPORE – Since the US Federal Reserve shifted to a less transparent policy approach, CMC Markets sales trader Eugene Koh has been paying much closer attention to key macroeconomic indicators, such as non-farm payrolls and inflation, to gauge the direction of monetary policy. “These indicators provide valuable insight into how the Fed may approach monetary policy going forward,” said Koh. One interesting change following the Fed shift is that market reactions have become much more nuanced, he added. For example, a weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls report – a key measure of US employment growth – would traditionally be viewed as bearish, as it signals a slowing economy. However, in the current environment, traders also consider whether softer economic data could increase the likelihood of future rate cuts, which can support equities and other risk assets, he noted. “As a result, the key question is no longer just whether the data is good or bad, but what it means for the Fed’s next move.” Koh’s comments come after new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh abolished forward guidance. Under his leadership, the US central bank aims to adopt a less predictable communication style, making it harder for Wall Street to guess future interest rate moves. The Fed kept interest rates steady at 3.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent during Warsh’s first policy meeting in June, driven by persistent inflation. Before Warsh assumed the role, the Fed practised “forward guidance”. This meant it communicated its expectations for the economy and the likely path of interest rates. Warsh, however, argues that this excessive communication creates an environment where the market expects too much from the Fed and can lead investors to treat its projections as firm commitments rather than conditional guidance. “Clients are increasingly seeking guidance on how economic releases and Fed expectations could affect their portfolios, so staying on top of these developments helps me better translate market moves into client takeaways, and makes it an even more important part of my day-to-day workflow,” he said. Analysts said the absence of forward guidance will likely put significant additional weight on key economic data in shaping market expectations of Fed policy, especially inflation data.

No more US Fed hints: How Warsh could change the way Singapore analysts read markets
Europe
The Guardian

EU sets up three months of talks with China over €360bn trade deficit

Transport ships loaded with cars destined for overseas markets lie at berth at Taicang in China’s Jiangsu province. EU tariffs have failed to stem imports of electric vehicles. Photograph: VCG/Getty ImagesView image in fullscreenTransport ships loaded with cars destined for overseas markets lie at berth at Taicang in China’s Jiangsu province. EU tariffs have failed to stem imports of electric vehicles. Photograph: VCG/Getty ImagesEuropean UnionEU sets up three months of talks with China over €360bn trade deficitTwo sides agree to try to make bilateral relationship ‘more balanced’ after weeks of threats The EU and China have agreed to enter three months of talks to try to avoid a trade war over the bloc’s €360bn (£310bn) annual import/export imbalance. In their first joint statement in seven years, the two sides agreed in Brussels to open a formal trade consultation after weeks of threats and recriminations from China if the EU imposed any measures to stop the flood of goods and components into the bloc. The EU’s trade commissioner, Maroš Šefčovič, said he hoped the “dialogue would bring tangible results” before the next meeting in Beijing in October. He met his Chinese counterpart, the commerce minister, Wang Wentao, for talks on Monday as part of a diplomatic offensive. They said in a joint statement: “The EU and China as key trade partners, agree that the main objective of the TIC [trade and investment consultations] is to strengthen dialogue at ministerial level on trade and investment policies with the view to stabilise and make our bilateral relationship more balanced.” EU leaders met two weeks ago to discuss concerns over what is now widely being described as China Shock 2.0 – a threat to European industries and jobs that extends far beyond electric vehicles and green energy. Eurostat, the EU’s statistics agency, said on 15 June that Chinese exports to the EU outweighed imports from the bloc by €1bn a day. View image in fullscreenMaroš Šefčovič, the EU’s trade commissioner, updates reporters on Monday about talks with China. Photograph: Olivier Matthys/EPA“We simply cannot afford to continue in the unsustainable growth of the trade deficit from the European perspective,” said Šefčovič. “We just didn’t want to wait too long. You hear it from European leaders, you heard it from the president of the European Commission, that what is very important for us is engagement, it’s dialogue. But it has to bring tangible results, and we believe that we can achieve them by October.” Industry groups including the European Chambers of Commerce in China say the level of exports going to Europe is threatening to “cannibalise” EU factories heavily reliant on components from China. The two sides have agreed to enter into consultation on four areas: the rebalancing of trade and investment; export controls including those on rare earths; intellectual property rights and World Trade Organization reforms. They have also agreed to a joint monitoring mechanism going beyond the headline figures recorded by Eurostat and GACC, the Chinese customs database.

EU sets up three months of talks with China over €360bn trade deficit
Asia-Pacific
The Straits Times

SGX on course for bumper crop of IPOs, yen on a roller coaster

As of late May, there had been five new listings, with four more expected in the coming months. SINGAPORE – Singapore saw a flurry of initial public offering (IPO) activity this week, with several companies lodging listing documents for the local bourse. The rush came amid improving market sentiment, with the Straits Times Index rising more than 1 per cent over the week to close at 5,244.29. If the conditions are right, the Singapore Exchange (SGX) could record 20 to 30 IPOs in 2026, building on the 15 listings in 2025. As of late May, there had been five new listings, with four more expected in the coming months – Foundation Healthcare Holdings (FHH), All-Link Air & Sea, EGP Energy Corporation and AirTrunk. However, the performance of recent SGX IPOs has cast a shadow. About 60 per cent of those listed over the past year have struggled post-debut. For example, co-working space provider JustCo, the most recent addition on May 22, was trading more than 40 per cent below its offering price about a month later. The poor showings may weaken investor confidence and affect demand for future IPOs, prompting would-be listers to either delay their mainboard debut or list elsewhere in the region. It remains to be seen whether these companies can sustain their pre-listing hype. Private healthcare group FHH was reportedly “multiple times oversubscribed” for its IPO, with strong demand from international and cornerstone investors, according to people with knowledge of the deal. The Temasek-backed healthcare company, which operates four medical centres, is looking to raise $242 million from its IPO. Of this, $118 million will come from 10 cornerstone investors, and the rest from 162.6 million shares on offer to the public and international investors at 76 cents per share. The IPO, which opened on July 1, will close at noon on July 6. Trading of the company’s shares is expected to commence on SGX on July 8 at 9am. FHH’s market capitalisation will stand at $1 billion upon listing. Earlier in the week, both electrical infrastructure solutions and service provider EGP Energy and logistics solutions provider All-Link Air & Sea lodged a preliminary prospectus on June 30 to list on the SGX mainboard. Lastly, data centre operator AirTrunk, which is backed by global investment firm Blackstone, was expected to have filed confidentially for an IPO of a real estate investment trust, though the timing was not confirmed, according to people familiar with the matter. Bloomberg reported in April that AirTrunk had sought to raise about US$1.5 billion (S$1.9 billion) from the offering.

SGX on course for bumper crop of IPOs, yen on a roller coaster
Europe
The Guardian

Tesla sales surpass expectations for second quarter as Musk backlash seems to cool

Tesla vehicles and super chargers are shown at a Tesla dealership in Buena Park, California, on 28 January 2026. Photograph: Mike Blake/ReutersView image in fullscreenTesla vehicles and super chargers are shown at a Tesla dealership in Buena Park, California, on 28 January 2026. Photograph: Mike Blake/ReutersTeslaTesla sales surpass expectations for second quarter as Musk backlash seems to coolStrong figures suggest Tesla’s auto business is regaining momentum after two straight annual sales declines Tesla blew past ​Wall Street estimates for second-quarter deliveries on Thursday, posting a record for the period as recovering demand in Europe outweighed persistent weakness in North America. The strong figures suggest Tesla’s ⁠mainstay auto business is regaining momentum after two straight annual sales declines, providing the spending cushion needed to power its ambitions in autonomous driving and artificial intelligence – the main drivers of the company’s roughly $1.6tn valuation. Tesla expects to spend more than $25bn on capital expenditure in 2026, nearly triple the $8.5bn last year, to expand ​AI infrastructure, battery production, Cybercab manufacturing and Optimus robots. “I ‌think the huge growth in Europe ‌is the key driver for Tesla right now. US sales still appear to be down, albeit less than the broader ‌US EV decline, while China is seeing small growth,” said Seth Goldstein, senior equity analyst at Morningstar. Tesla’s recovery in Europe was aided by government EV incentives, faster electrification of corporate fleets, higher fuel prices and an easing of the consumer backlash over CEO Elon Musk’s far-right politics last year. The company delivered 480,126 vehicles in the April to June period, a record for the second quarter and up about 25% from a year earlier, easily surpassing analysts’ average estimate of 402,776 vehicles, according ‌to Visible Alpha data. Tesla produced 451,758 vehicles during the quarter. The deliveries exceeded production by more than 28,000 vehicles, leading the company to draw down inventory that it built up during the first quarter. The ​company’s China-made EV sales have risen this year, helped by production of the refreshed Model Y, despite intense competition from BYD and other domestic automakers. Earlier in the day, smaller ​rival Rivian raised its annual deliveries forecast and ​beat estimates for second-quarter deliveries. Tesla has continued to roll out its “full self-driving” (FSD) advanced driver assistance ​software in Europe, although it ‌is only available in a ​handful of countries. Analysts ​expect broader availability over the coming months to support demand. The company expanded its robotaxi operations after launching a limited commercial service in Austin in June. Musk has said the company intends to rapidly expand the service through 2026.

Tesla sales surpass expectations for second quarter as Musk backlash seems to cool
Europe
The Guardian

US employers added just 57,000 new jobs in June, lower than expected

A hiring sign for sales professionals is displayed at a store in Vernon Hills, Illinois, on 15 April 2026. Photograph: Nam Y Huh/APView image in fullscreenA hiring sign for sales professionals is displayed at a store in Vernon Hills, Illinois, on 15 April 2026. Photograph: Nam Y Huh/APUS unemployment and employment dataUS employers added just 57,000 new jobs in June, lower than expectedThe country’s unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.2% as US job growth also slowed for the month US job growth slowed in June as employers added 57,000 new jobs – just about half of what economists had predicted – and the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its figures from the past two months down by a total of 74,000. The country’s unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.2%, but the number of unemployed people changed little, according to the latest data, as 720,000 people left the labor force. The bureau revised the unexpectedly high May figures from 172,000 new jobs to 129,000, and revised the April figures from 179,000 to 148,000. Though the numbers fell short of economists’s expectations, the average number of jobs added in the last three months was about 111,000, indicating a relatively strong job market despite economic uncertainty and higher inflation brought on by the war in the Middle East. The figures also remain much higher than the sluggish growth seen last fall and winter. Private employers added 98,000 jobs in June, according to data from the payroll supplier ADP, and pay was up 4.4% year-over-year for those who have stayed in their jobs for the year. Workers in finance saw the highest increase in their annual pay, at 5%. The healthcare industry, which has so far been key in driving job gains, added 22,000 jobs in June – a slower pace than its average monthly gain of 38,000. The hospitality and leisure industry unexpectedly declined by 61,000, reflecting weaker than usual seasonal hiring despite the World Cup soccer matches hosted across the US. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, also released earlier this week, the number of job openings, hires and voluntary separations all changed very little in May, indicating that the economy is still in a “low hire, low fire” mode. “The pace of hiring is telling a story of both supply and demand. We know it’s taking people longer to find work, but there also are signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries,” said Dr Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist. “For now, the overall effect is a slowdown in job creation.” The latest jobs numbers make it all the more likely that the US Federal Reserve will continue to focus on inflation at its next meeting in late July. Last month, the Fed’s new chair, Kevin Warsh, emphasized “price stability” in his first press conference since taking office and said the central bank will continue to pursue its longstanding goal of a 2% inflation rate. But this week, he told a conference of central bankers that “inflation risks have come down”. Since February, the war in the Middle East has rapidly pushed up inflation, reaching a three-year high of 4.2% in May. Despite the fragile peace deal reached between the US and Iran, prices at the pump remain elevated and it is unclear whether the June inflation figures, which are scheduled to be released later this month, will reflect the latest negotiations. In their June meeting, Fed officials also released projections indicating that most members believed that at least one rate hike would occur before the end of the year. The central bank has held rates steady since December.

US employers added just 57,000 new jobs in June, lower than expected
Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

TCS Q1 Results LIVE: TCS Q1 net profit rises 4.61% to ₹13,349 cr; revenues jump 14%; stock ends flat

TCS Q1 Results today LIVE: Stay tuned for live updates as Tata Consultancy Services announces its Q1 FY27 earnings. Follow the latest earnings announcements from Anand Rathi Wealth, GM Breweries, Eimco Elecon (India), Supreme Infrastructure India, Cupid Breweries and Distilleries, Asian Hotels (East), Arunjyoti Bio Ventures, Gujarat Hotels, and Mono Pharmacare, along with expert commentary and market reaction. Sony Pictures Networks India reports FY26 profit rise of 15.6% to ₹556 crore, driven by increased revenue and advertising growth. TCS reported a 14% rise in Q1 revenue to ₹72,275 crore, beating estimates as higher technology spending by banking clients supported growth. Q1FY27E should be understandably soft, with average Brent at $97/bbl and supply tightness across multiple sectors. The good news is that demand remained strong, with revenue growth across staples/discretionary at 10 per cent/51 per cent yoy, showing little signs of fatigue. We see little risk to the FY27E Nifty EPSg forecast of 15 per cent, with demand remaining strong and some margin tailwinds kicking in from 2QFY27E onwards. The two-year time correction has taken Nifty PE to 18.9x, 3.5 per cent below 5Y LTA, and we remain constructive on Indian equities. We maintain our Mar-27 Nifty forecast at 29,000, implying a 1YF PE at 20.9x, close to LTA. We prefer discretionary (including autos), industrials, and are UW on BFSI. Eimco Elecon (India) Limited on Thursday reported a sharp jump in net profit for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, even as its stock fell sharply on the NSE during intraday trade. The company posted a net profit of ₹15.38 crore for Q1 FY27, up 141.8 per cent from ₹6.36 crore in the immediately preceding quarter ended March 31, 2026, and up 6.2 per cent compared to ₹14.48 crore in the same quarter last year. Revenue from operations rose to ₹77.52 crore from ₹67.57 crore in Q1 FY26, a year-on-year increase of about 14.7 per cent. Total income for the quarter stood at ₹85.28 crore against ₹75.66 crore in the year-ago period. Profit before tax came in at ₹19.62 crore, compared to ₹18.41 crore in Q1 FY26. Basic and diluted earnings per share for the quarter were ₹26.66, against ₹25.11 in the corresponding period last year. The company operates a single reportable business segment — Machinery and Spares — and has no subsidiaries, associates, or joint ventures. Despite the earnings beat, the stock traded under pressure on the NSE. As of 2.54 pm, shares were down ₹70 or 3.76 per cent at ₹1,792, after touching an intraday high of ₹2,018. The stock has lost 35.56 per cent over the past year but has delivered 261.82 per cent returns over five years. Total market capitalisation stood at approximately ₹1,023 crore. G.M. Breweries Limited on Thursday reported a 45.9 per cent year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit to ₹37.74 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, compared with ₹25.86 crore in the same period last year, according to unaudited financial results submitted to stock exchanges. Total revenue from operations for the quarter stood at ₹80,290 lakhs, up from ₹63,801 lakhs in the year-ago period. The company’s total income, including other income of ₹555 lakhs, came in at ₹80,845 lakhs. Excise duty, VAT and TCS — a pass-through cost that forms the largest expense for liquor companies — accounted for ₹60,332 lakhs of total expenses of ₹75,802 lakhs. Profit before tax was ₹5,043 lakhs, against ₹3,456 lakhs a year earlier, a rise of about 46 per cent. Tax expenses for the quarter were ₹1,269 lakhs.

TCS Q1 Results LIVE: TCS Q1 net profit rises 4.61% to ₹13,349 cr; revenues jump 14%; stock ends flat
Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

TCS Q1 results: Net profit rises 4.7% to ₹13,420 crore, AI revenue tops $2.6 billion

TCS reported an annualised AI revenue run-rate of $2.6 billion, secured $9.5 billion in order bookings, including a marquee AI deal with SKF, and declared an interim dividend of ₹12 per share. | Photo Credit: Dado Ruvic/Reuters Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) net profit grew 4.7 per cent to ₹13,420 crore for the first quarter of the financial year 2026-27, led by positive annual growth across most verticals and AI-transformation-focused deals. Net profit declined 2.6 per cent on a sequential basis, owing to exceptional costs like the settlement of a legal claim. Excluding exceptional items, profit came in at ₹13,849 crore with an annual growth of 8.5 per cent. “Q1 FY27 reflects continued growth momentum and the strength of our strategic positioning, despite geopolitical and macro-economic headwinds. We delivered a strong order book of $9.5 billion, including a marquee AI-led transformation deal with SKF, while continuing to add clients across key revenue bands and scaling our AI business to a $2.6 billion annualized revenue run rate. As customers accelerate investments in AI, modernization, cybersecurity, sovereign cloud and platform simplification, our strong deal conversion, improving client mining and expanding ecosystem partnerships position TCS well to translate opportunity into sustained growth,” said K Krithivasan, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director. Revenue grew 14 per cent to ₹72,275 crore annually, and 2.2 per cent on a quarterly basis, led by growth across most segments. Annualised AI revenue run-rate stood at $2.6 billion, a sequential increase of 13.6 per cent. The Board of Directors also declared an interim dividend of ₹12 per Equity Share of ₹1 each of TCS. Total contract value (TCV) fell by 20 per cent to 9.5 billion, winning three mega-deals in Q1. Operating margin declined to 24 per cent. “Q1 was characterised by strong growth across several services. We won multiple AI-led transformation deals with our dual commitment to AI-led optimisation as well as innovation-led outcomes. These wins validate our approach to AI-led efficient ITOps, accelerated Software Engineering and Modernisation, AI-first process redesign and implementation of SaaS solutions and Autonomous GBS. We signed strategic partnerships with Anthropic and Mistral expanding our AI ecosystem,” Aarthi Subramanian, Executive Director - President and Chief Operating Officer. Overall TCS results performed marginally better than expectations, as per Sandeep Shah, Director Equity Research at Equirus Securities. The workforce grew by 9,729 employees to 593,798, a sequential growth rate of 1.58 per cent, after muted additions in the last financial year. The sequential growth is also the highest addition in the last 15 quarters, said Shah.The company reported a ‘Voluntary’ LTM attrition of 13.6 per cent. “This quarter, we completed annual salary increments for all associates globally and aligned salary structures with the new India Labour Code requirements. We continue to invest in AI infrastructure, next-generation skill development platforms, to enable our people to be futureready, while fostering a workplace where every associate feels safe, valued, trusted and empowered to grow,” said Sudeep Kunnumal, Chief HR Officer. In Q1, regional markets fell by 0.6 per cent on-year and grew 1.2 per cent sequentially. The Indian market reported 22.9 per cent annual growth and 7.6 per cent sequential growth. Latin America dropped 2.1 per cent annually, and grew 0.6 per cent sequentially. Meanwhile, the UK market fell 0.6 per cent annually and grew 0.3 per cent sequentially. West Asia and Africa grew 7.6 per cent annually but declined 1.8 per cent sequentially. All verticals, aside from the consumer business, showed positive annual growth. Regional markets led the growth, including energy, resources, utilities, and life sciences, on an annual basis. However, on a sequential basis, the energy, life sciences, and manufacturing verticals declined by 0.5-4 per cent.

TCS Q1 results: Net profit rises 4.7% to ₹13,420 crore, AI revenue tops $2.6 billion