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Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

Climate risk, El Niño and rural credit: Rethinking financial resilience for farmers

Climate change is no longer only an agricultural challenge. It is increasingly a financial challenge, shaping how rural households earn, borrow, save and recover from economic shocks. The southwest monsoon has progressed across India, yet rainfall remains uneven in several regions, affecting the kharif sowing season. El Niño is among the weather factors that can influence monsoon rains in India, though its effects vary by region and other climatic conditions. For farmers, the immediate concern is uncertainty. When rains are delayed or erratic after sowing begins, already stretched household cash flows come under additional pressure. As of early July, kharif sowing stood around 20 per cent below last year’s pace, with oilseeds (down 21%), cotton and pulses (down over 20 per cent) among the worst-affected crops, although the gap narrowed during the first half of the month. Delayed rains, uneven rainfall or prolonged dry spells often force small farmers to re-sow, spend more on irrigation or change crops. These additional costs increase the financial burden on households, making it harder to manage daily expenses and meet loan repayments. While the all-India rainfall deficit narrowed from over 40 per cent in late June to 18 per cent within a fortnight, East and Northeast India continued to record a 37 per cent deficit, with forecasts pointing to further dry spells across central and southern India. Recovery at the national level can thus mask sustained stress at the regional and district levels. Agriculture may not be every rural household’s only source of income, but it often remains the principal one. A weak monsoon affects not only farm output but also spending on food, healthcare, education and the next cultivation cycle. It can also push households towards higher-cost informal borrowing simply to manage existing financial obligations. This places greater emphasis on how rural finance is designed. The issue is no longer just access to credit, but access to credit that reflects the realities of rural livelihoods. Lending decisions must consider local harvest cycles, weather conditions, seasonal expenses and the fact that many households depend on multiple income sources rather than farming alone. Local conditions matter just as much. An irrigated farmer faces different risks from one who relies entirely on rainfall. Likewise, households with diversified livelihoods through livestock, wage labour or small enterprises are often better placed to withstand climate shocks than those dependent on a single crop. Irrigation coverage varies widely across regions, from below 20% in tribal and dryland belts to above 80–90% in well-irrigated plains districts, making it a strong indicator of repayment capacity. Such insights can help lenders structure more suitable products and anticipate periods of financial stress. During weather-related disruptions, timely finance becomes essential. If farmers need to re-sow or invest in irrigation, quick access to formal credit can help protect the cultivation cycle. Repayment schedules that reflect seasonal income patterns are equally important, preventing temporary disruptions from becoming long-term debt problems. Credit alone cannot create financial resilience. Rural households also need savings to manage lean periods, insurance that provides timely protection against climate-related risks, and long-term savings and pension products that strengthen financial security beyond seasonal earnings. Financial inclusion must, therefore, move beyond expanding access towards improving financial health and reducing dependence on expensive informal finance. Climate uncertainty is now part of rural life. Farmers need finance that not only funds the next crop cycle but also helps them manage the uncertainty surrounding it. Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments. We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.

Climate risk, El Niño and rural credit: Rethinking financial resilience for farmers
Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

US tariff threat drags Nifty Pharma 1.3% lower at close; Lupin, PPL Pharma lead decline

Pharma stocks closed sharply lower on Wednesday after the United States proposed steep tariffs on generic drug imports, with the Nifty Pharma Index ending 340 points, or 1.31 per cent, down at 25,752 against a previous close of 26,092. Eighteen of the index’s 20 constituents closed in the red, with trading volume reaching 315.07 lakh shares and a total traded value of ₹3,584.98 crore for the session. The selloff was triggered by a phased US tariff proposal that would keep generic medicines duty-free until August 1, 2028, before imposing a 100 per cent tariff from August 2028 and a 200 per cent tariff from August 2029. India exports approximately $8–9 billion worth of pharmaceutical products to the US annually, the bulk of which are generics. Lupin was the session’s worst performer, closing down 4.35 per cent, followed by PPL Pharma at 4.20 per cent, Ajant Pharma at 3.25 per cent, and Auropharma at 2.96 per cent. Dr. Reddy’s fell 2.16 per cent, Gland Pharma 2.20 per cent, and Sailife 2.77 per cent. Sun Pharma, the index heavyweight, declined 0.91 per cent. Torntpharm was nearly flat at -0.01 per cent, while only Divi’s Laboratories and Abbott India managed gains, closing up 0.78 per cent and 0.35 per cent respectively. Analysts were quick to note that the policy’s eventual implementation is far from certain. Param Desai, Research Analyst at PL Capital, pointed out that “Trump’s term ends in January 2029, while the major tariff impact begins from August 2028, so the eventual implementation remains uncertain if there is a change in administration.” He added that the announcement carried “considerable ambiguity around how these tariffs will actually be implemented.” For patients and healthcare systems in the US, the proposal carries its own concerns. Bharat Celly, Equity Research Analyst at Equirus Securities, warned that the tariffs “could raise the cost of low-priced medicines and, in shortage-prone categories, increase the risk of supply disruptions rather than drive reshoring.” He noted that the proposal “runs counter to the intent of the Hatch-Waxman framework, which was designed to reduce drug prices through greater generic competition.” The practical challenge of shifting manufacturing to the US within the proposed two-year window is significant. Celly explained that transferring a drug to a US facility requires “site transfer filings, process validation, stability data, and FDA approval for each ANDA,” adding that “the cost and timeline of re-registering products significantly exceed the proposed transition period.” Several large Indian generic manufacturers do already operate US-based facilities, which could partially offset the impact. Celly’s overall assessment: “We view the proposal primarily as a negotiating tool, given that implementation is deferred until August 2028, beyond the next US election cycle,” with no near-term earnings impact expected, though sentiment and valuation multiples could face pressure. Against this international backdrop, the domestic pharmaceutical market continues to show strength. India’s pharmaceutical market is projected to grow 11.3 per cent in 2026, up from 8.1 per cent in 2025, and is expected to expand from $60.3 billion to $79.7 billion by 2031. The Nifty Pharma Index, despite Wednesday’s decline, remains above its 50-day moving average of 24,800 and its 200-day moving average of 23,100, and closed within striking distance of its 52-week high of 26,135. Mayank Jain, Market Analyst at Share.Market by PhonePe, noted that the India-UK Free Trade Agreement, which eliminates duties on Indian pharma entering the UK, is expected to drive an 8–10 per cent increase in UK-bound exports next year, offering an alternative export channel as companies assess the US tariff situation. The index has returned 15.44 per cent over the past year and 13.78 per cent year-to-date. Wednesday’s session touched an intraday low of 25,545 before recovering to close at 25,752, suggesting some buying emerged at lower levels even as the broader sentiment remained cautious. Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments. We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.

US tariff threat drags Nifty Pharma 1.3% lower at close; Lupin, PPL Pharma lead decline
North America
CNBC Finance

EU antitrust regulators clear Paramount-WBD merger as it faces challenge by U.S. states

European Union antitrust regulators said on Wednesday they had signed off on Paramount Skydance's proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. The approval, which included concessions made by Paramount, comes as the deal has been delayed in the U.S. due to concerns raised by state attorneys general. In order to garner the approval, the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, said Paramount agreed to divest its stake in a film distribution joint venture with United International Pictures in Europe, and said it would not enter into any film distribution deal with Universal for the next 10 years in Europe. "These commitments fully address the competition concerns identified by the Commission by ensuring that the films of the merged entity will not be distributed jointly with those Universal or Disney," according to the EU's release. The EU's approval marks a major regulatory milestone for the $110 billion proposed merger. The deal earlier won approval from the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice. Various other global jurisdictions have also signed off on the deal. "With the clearance from the European Commission, bodies and governments representing 65 jurisdictions have either cleared the transaction or chosen not to challenge it on competition and/or foreign direct investment grounds," Paramount said in a release on Wednesday. "These clearances recognize that the combination of Paramount and WBD will enhance consumer choice and enable a creative-first company to invest in more projects and bring stories to audiences worldwide," Paramount said in its statement. "It will create a scaled media and entertainment company capable of competing with the tech companies that have come to dominate the industry, strengthening the media ecosystem and creating more opportunities for creatives both in front of and behind the camera." The clearance comes as a lawsuit brought forward by a group of U.S. state attorneys general last week has become a potential holdup in this deal moving forward. The coalition led by California's Rob Bonta filed a lawsuit seeking to block the merger due to antitrust concerns. The tie-up is set to combine two major film studios, Paramount and Warner Bros., a massive portfolio of pay TV networks, and streaming services HBO Max and Paramount+. Earlier this week a California district judge granted a temporary restraining order that puts a 14-day pause on anything moving forward with the merger. "The conclusions reached by the European Commission directly refute key assumptions that underpin the state AGs' complaint seeking to block the transaction," Paramount said in its release.

EU antitrust regulators clear Paramount-WBD merger as it faces challenge by U.S. states
North America
CNBC Finance

Southwest Airlines put Texas jet fuel on a boat to LA for the first time amid supply worries

Southwest Airlines hired a ship this spring to send jet fuel from Texas to California, where prices are much higher and concerns had grown about supply, Chief Financial Officer Tom Doxey told CNBC. It was a first for the Dallas airline. "It brought like a week's supply to the West Coast at a time when when supply was most constricted ... when it was most at risk," Doxey said. The ship, which left from Houston and went through the Panama Canal, arrived May 28 in Los Angeles and had about 12.6 million gallons aboard, Southwest said. For context, Southwest used 564 million gallons of jet fuel in the last quarter. The West Coast is much more reliant on imports than other parts of the country. Jet fuel prices spiked and have been volatile since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran in February. Southwest said Thursday that its fuel expenses were up nearly $900 million in the second quarter from last year. For the shipment to California, the airline said it used a waiver of the Jones Act, a law from 1920 that requires shipments between U.S. ports to be carried on a U.S. ship. President Donald Trump waived that requirement in March as fuel prices were soaring in the weeks following the start of the Iran war and subsequent shipping snarls erupted in the Strait of Hormuz, a key channel. Worries about supplies intensified as countries restricted exports this year, fearful of running low on fuel. Those concerns have since eased, a Southwest spokesman said. Jet fuel is airlines' biggest expense after labor. Prices eased in late spring and early summer but rose again as tensions reignited with Iran this month. Last week, United Airlines, which flies more internationally than any other U.S. carrier, said it is using the latest available fuel prices for its quarterly estimates because prices have been so volatile. In its July 15 report, it said jet fuel increased $575 million, or a $1.12 hit to adjusted earnings per share, for the third quarter alone. U.S. airlines have abandoned fuel hedges, which help them lock in costs through futures contracts, over the past decade or so as the U.S. was awash in supply, keeping a lid on prices. This time around, carriers have scaled back their capacity growth plans, which is also helping boost fares. Airline executives this month said demand remains strong despite higher fares, which they say are likely to stick.

Southwest Airlines put Texas jet fuel on a boat to LA for the first time amid supply worries
Asia-Pacific
The Straits Times

Gold edges up as traders weigh Middle East conflict

Bullion inched above US$4,060 an ounce, having fallen as much as 0.7 per cent earlier in the session and 2 per cent the day before. LONDON – Gold edged higher, holding firmly above the key resistance point of US$4,000 an ounce even as the widening conflict in the Middle East fuels expectations for tighter monetary policy. Bullion inched above US$4,060 an ounce, having fallen as much as 0.7 per cent earlier in the session and 2 per cent the day before. Prices are still up on the week. Oil prices retreated on July 24 after hitting US$100 a barrel in the previous session, with the Iran war in a new phase of escalation after the effective collapse of a truce. Crude’s recent rally has stoked inflationary pressures, which alongside a seemingly resilient US labor market increase the possibility of interest-rate hikes. Higher borrowing costs are a headwind for non-yielding bullion. Swap traders currently see a roughly 30 per cent chance the Fed will lift rates at a meeting next week. At least one hike is priced in by the end of the year. “Despite strongly rising oil prices and the resulting renewed concerns about interest rates, the price has held above US$4,000 per troy ounce,” analysts at Commerzbank AG wrote in a note. “Against this background, next week’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to move the gold price much.” Adding to the uncertainty, the US announced it will collect duties of 10 to 12.5 per cent on imports from most major trading partners, alleging forced labor in their supply chains. It is US President Donald Trump’s broadest move yet toward restoring his protectionist tariff regime since his earlier levies were struck down by the Supreme Court. Gold has largely hovered around US$4,000 since late June, which some traders see as a key support level. It’s down by roughly a quarter since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February, helping to end a multiyear bull run that had carried the metal to a record near US$5,600 the month before. Spot gold edged up 0.3 per cent to US$4,061.27 an ounce as of 12.23pm in London (7.23pm Singapore time). Silver was up 1.4 per cent at US$58.40 an ounce after falling 3.6 per cent in the prior session. Platinum rose 0.6 per cent, while palladium held steady. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed. BLOOMBERG

Gold edges up as traders weigh Middle East conflict
North America
CNBC Finance

'The Odyssey' is cleaning up for Imax. Expect the momentum to continue

Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" is racking up box office dollars for Imax and fueling investor confidence that the company will reach record ticket sales in 2026. Shares of Imax jumped more than 8% on Thursday after the company reported it was still on track to deliver a record $1.4 billion in global box office this year. Wall Street had worried that when Netflix and Greta Gerwig's "Narnia: The Magician's Nephew" was pushed from its November release date to February 2027, that Imax would not be able to reach that guidance. Universal's "The Odyssey" is easing those fears. Over its opening weekend, the film generated $52 million in global box office for Imax. The company's locations represented less than 1% of total screens but a whopping 20% of the film's worldwide debut. "The Odyssey" opening was 47% higher than Nolan's previous film, "Oppenheimer." The biopic hauled in more than $190 million via Imax throughout its run in 2023. And momentum for "The Odyssey" has showed few signs of slowing. The film secured another $11 million on Monday and $10.6 million on Tuesday — the best Tuesday performance of all time for the company, according to Imax CEO Rich Gelfond, who spoke to investors on an earnings call Thursday. "Our presales for the second weekend would qualify on its own as one of our biggest opening weekends ever," he said. "These numbers help prove that we're just getting warmed up." Still to come to global Imax screens this year is Sony and Marvel's "Spider-Man: Brand New Day;" Zach Cregger's take on "Resident Evil;" Tom Cruise's newest feature, "Digger;" "Godzilla Minus Zero;" David Fincher's "The Adventures of Cliff Booth," which stars Brad Pitt and is based on Quentin Tarantino's "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood;" and Paramount's "Street Fighter." Then Warner Bros. and Denis Villeneuve's "Dune: Part Three" will cap off the year. The first Dune film generated $61 million in Imax theaters during the tail end of the pandemic and "Dune: Part Two" secured $147 million globally. "Our momentum continues to translate into demand from our exhibition partners," Gelfond said. The company installed 38 Imax systems globally during the second quarter, up from 36 during the same period a year prior. This is the highest number of installations in the second quarter in a decade, Natasha Fernandes, Imax's chief financial officer, told investors during Thursday's earnings call. Nineteen systems were installed in the first quarter, and the company is on pace to have 160 to 175 installations by the end of 2026. "We continue to see tremendous runway for our global expansion, and we continue to innovate in ways that make Imax even more valuable to creators, studios, exhibitors and audiences alike," Gelfond said. "This is an incredibly exciting time for our business." Correction: This story has been revised to reflect that "Godzilla Minus Zero" is among the films coming to Imax screens this year. A previous version misstated the name of the movie.

'The Odyssey' is cleaning up for Imax. Expect the momentum to continue
Europe
BBC Business

Trump slaps 50% tariffs on Canada and Carney vows to 'intensify' trade talks

Image source, ReutersByNadine Yousif, Toronto, Francisco Velasquez and Peter Hoskins, Business reportersPublished20 July 2026Updated 17 minutes agoUS President Donald Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on a wide range of goods imported from Canada, in retaliation for what he called "unequal treatment" of US cars, dairy and alcohol. Everyday consumer items like wine and hockey sticks and industrial goods such as cement are among the goods targeted. However, several key exports will be spared, such as energy, potash, critical minerals and fish. Prime Minister Mark Carney responded by saying Canada stood ready to "intensify" trade talks with the US in the coming weeks. The White House said the duties would take effect in 30 days. It marks a major escalation in trade tensions between the North American neighbours. These tensions have been simmering since Trump returned to office in January 2025 and unleashed a wide-ranging global programme of tariffs, sometimes to pursue objectives not directly linked to trade. Tariffs are taxes on imported goods that are paid to the government by companies bringing in the foreign products. The US Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that many of Trump's tariffs imposed globally under emergency powers were illegally enacted. But Trump has recently sought other legal avenues through which to enact his agenda, and his latest action on Monday night uses a different, obscure law that is untested in court. Canada, which is one of the US's closest trading partners, was one of the few countries to retaliate last year against Trump's tariffs. It placed a 25% levy of its own on about C$30bn (£16bn; $21.7bn) worth of US goods being brought into Canada. Carney later dropped some of them. A White House fact sheet published on Monday discussing the new tariffs said they applied regardless of whether the product was included under the existing free trade agreement between Canada, the US and Mexico, known as the USMCA. The US has been maintaining active tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on Canadian steel, aluminium and copper. It also charges a 35% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, alongside a 25% tax on non-US parts in cars.

Trump slaps 50% tariffs on Canada and Carney vows to 'intensify' trade talks
North America
Yahoo Finance

S&P 500, Nasdaq close lower ahead of technology earnings

STORY: U.S. stocks ended lower on Wednesday, with Dow virtually flat, the S&P 500 dipping fractionally, while the Nasdaq lost more than half a percent. Investors eagerly awaited earnings results after the closing bell from Alphabet and Tesla, the first of the Magnificent Seven megacaps to report. Shares of Alphabet, down more than 1% at the close, dipped further in extended trading despite the Google parent topping Wall Street estimates for cloud revenue growth thanks to the AI boom. And shares of Tesla, which also closed lower, tumbled another 2.5% in extended trading after Elon Musk's EV maker reported negative free cash flow for the first time in more than two years due to accelerated spending on AI infrastructure, battery capacity, robotaxis and next-generation manufacturing. Bob Lang, founder and chief options analyst of Explosive Options, said that strong earnings are needed to keep the market moving higher. “The one thing that has been pretty constant here for the past 4 or 5 months for the stock market has been strong earnings and certainly a first quarter brought us about 26, 27% earnings growth. So far in the second quarter, we're seeing it at about 16 to 17%. And that's without some of the big names that have reported for the second quarter yet. We're going to have big names like, Nvidia. We're going to have big names like Micron reporting in September. That's a couple of months away, of course. But you know, we're going to have some of these companies out there that are probably going to report some stellar earnings. And, it's really been the linchpin for keeping the stock market afloat right now.” Shares of IBM rose in extended trading after the company cut its annual revenue growth forecast, days after shocking Wall Street with a warning that corporate spending was shifting toward AI-focused data-center gear at the expense of its software and mainframe computers. :: ServiceNow Handout And shares of ServiceNow, down about 6.5% at the close, rose more than 3% after hours as the company raised its forecast for annual subscription revenue for the second time after beating second-quarter revenue and profit estimates, driven by growing demand for its AI-powered software. Among other tech names, shares of Super Micro Computer rallied almost 20%, making it the S&P 500's biggest percentage gainer, a day after the server maker said it had secured more than $60 billion in new orders in its fiscal fourth quarter.

S&P 500, Nasdaq close lower ahead of technology earnings
North America
CNBC Finance

Jamie Dimon says markets underestimate risks and he wouldn't buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said investors are underestimating the risks facing the global economy and that he wouldn't buy either equities or long-dated U.S. Treasurys at their current prices. In an hourlong interview with Wilfred Frost released late Monday, Dimon said markets aren't fully accounting for a growing list of geopolitical and fiscal threats. "I do think those risks are probably bigger than other people think," Dimon said, pointing to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions between the U.S. and China, and rising military spending in a time of mounting government deficits. Asked whether markets are underpricing the chance of a major shock, Dimon said it's difficult to know exactly what risks are already reflected in asset prices. "It's possible something's baked in, but what's not baked in is what actually happens," he said. Dimon, who leads the world's largest bank by market cap, often warns the public about the economic risks he sees. His latest comments contrast with investors' recent willingness to look past wars, tariffs and other shocks. The S&P 500 has returned nearly 10% this year as consumers continue to spend, inflation has moderated and investors have embraced the artificial intelligence trade. Last week, JPMorgan Chase and its peers posted blockbuster quarterly results powered by surging trading and investment banking revenue, reinforcing the view that the U.S. economy has weathered recent geopolitical turmoil better than many expected. Dimon acknowledged in the interview with "The Master Investor Podcast" that the global economy has become more resilient because of a lower energy dependence than in previous decades, but warned that doesn't eliminate the possibility of a sudden inflection point. "You may need more straws in the camel's back to cause that tipping point," he said. "Even this current war starting up again, maybe that's not enough to do it." Persistent U.S. budget deficits will eventually force a reckoning, potentially driving interest rates higher, Dimon said. "My view is it will become a problem," he said, predicting higher interest rates as so-called bond vigilantes demand greater compensation to finance the government's debt.

Jamie Dimon says markets underestimate risks and he wouldn't buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices