Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

AI bubble risks worst S&P 500 crash since 2008, strategist says

Rather than advising clients to sell now, the strategist advises they develop contingency plans and timing tools that would help identify the start of a crash. | Photo Credit: Suriya Phosri The head of market strategy at a London investment bank has a stark warning for investors: the artificial-intelligence trade may soon be over in what could trigger the most severe market crash since the global financial crisis. Equities have powered to record levels across the globe this year, fuelled in part by optimism over surging spending on AI infrastructure. But Panmure Liberum’s Joachim Klement said his base case is for that trade to disintegrate as soon as 2027, sending stocks sharply lower. “My core conviction is that the AI bubble will either burst in 2027 or in 2028, so sometime in the next two years,” Klement said in an interview. Hyperscalers’ free cash flows are largely depleted, while the cost of debt is rising quickly and becoming prohibitive for these firms, he said. Klement’s 2027 year-end target of 5,000 points for the S&P 500 implies 36 per cent downside from current levels. That’s by far the most bearish of seven other strategists tracked by Bloomberg, who on average look for potential upside of 14 per cent. Klement sees Europe’s Stoxx 600 falling to 430 points, more than 30 per cent below current levels. The strategist, who started his career at UBS Group AG more than two decades ago, is among the first to call an end to the stock market’s current bull run. As recently as mid-September, his key assumption was that the S&P 500 would hit 8,300 points by the end of next year. His change of mind reflects concern that stubborn inflation and an associated surge in the cost of borrowing needed to fund investment could derail the bonanza in AI-related infrastructure. That echoes a warning this week from Temasek International’s chief investment officer Rohit Sipahimalani that a reversal of the AI trade is a key risk facing global markets. Data-center capital spending by hyperscalers in 2026 could more than double from last year’s level to hit $713 billion, according to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates. That number is set to increase further next year, albeit at a slower pace, and has underpinned many of the projections for US tech companies’ projected earnings. “It is a situation where people are just focusing on one thing and one thing only, and that is earnings and in particular tech earnings,” Klement said. “And they excuse every macro, credit or whatever headwind that you can come up with that story.” Citigroup Inc. strategists said this week that solid 2027 earnings can support further gains for global equities, despite higher interest rates and geopolitical risk. Klement acknowledges that his bearish call may be premature and he remains the most bullish among Bloomberg-tracked strategists for the Stoxx 600 until the end of 2026, predicting gains of about 10 per cent in the regional benchmark.

AI bubble risks worst S&P 500 crash since 2008, strategist says
Europe
BBC Business

US jobs market sees sharp slowdown ahead of midterm elections

Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption, Workforces remained unchanged across major sectors, from tech to retail. American firms are choosing to hold steady rather than hire or fire staff The US jobs market saw a sharp slowdown in September, with employers adding just 29,000 jobs in the final update before the midterm elections. Headcounts were little changed in major sectors from tech to retail as hiring fell significantly from August, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.1% in August to 4.2% in September. The figures signal a cooling US economy, which experts said reduced the likelihood of a series of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The 29,000 jobs created in September was down from a figure of 133,000 in August, according to revised BLS figures for the month. But George Brown, senior economist at Schroders, said while job gains have been a “rollercoaster“ this year, a single soft report is unlikely to point to a lasting collapse. And Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics, said the lower figure was “not disastrous“, adding that a drop in government roles and temporary visa policy changes weighed on overall growth. Jeffery Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added that the data showed tension between “goods producing sectors that support the AI boom” and service industries feeling the effect of changes brought about by the tech. “Given the overall softness of the labour market, the likelihood of two Fed hikes is going lower,” he said. The BLS report stands in sharp contrast to President Donald Trump's insistence that America's economy is booming and it is the "hottest" nation in the world. The disconnect is likely to present significant challenges as the president and his fellow Republicans hit the the campaign trail with just a month to go before the midterm congressional elections.

US jobs market sees sharp slowdown ahead of midterm elections
Europe
The Guardian

US added just 29,000 jobs in September in sharp drop from last month’s gains

A man walks by a hiring sign posted outside a restaurant in Arlington, Virginia, on 3 June 2022. Photograph: Olivier Douliery/AFP/Getty ImagesView image in fullscreenA man walks by a hiring sign posted outside a restaurant in Arlington, Virginia, on 3 June 2022. Photograph: Olivier Douliery/AFP/Getty ImagesUS unemployment and employment dataUS added just 29,000 jobs in September in sharp drop from last month’s gainsFinal jobs report before the midterm elections also shows the US unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, a sharp drop from last month’s gains, and unemployment rose slightly to 4.2%, a sign of a cooling labor market in the final jobs report before the midterm election. The numbers were under half of economists’ expectations of just under 70,000 new jobs. Most job gains were concentrated in the healthcare industry, which added 17,000 new jobs, while the information, financial and professional industries saw losses, according to the latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Earlier jobs figures were also revised down: Initial reports from July and August altogether dropped by 60,000. The labor market contracted by 10,000 jobs in July after revisions, while August saw 133,000 jobs added. Growth in average hourly earnings slumped to 3%, the lowest rate in over five years. The unemployment rate has remained relatively steady since last year, when it hit 4.5% in November. US jobless claims also inched lower for the fourth week in a row, the labor department said on Thursday. But a closer look at the data also reveals how not all Americans are experiencing the same labor market. Unemployment among Black Americans grew an entire percentage point to 7%, double the rate of white Americans. Though job growth slumped over the summer – the labor market unexpectedly contracted in July and figures in June and May were revised sharply down from initial reports – 162,000 jobs were added in August, the highest since March. Job openings and the number of hires have also remained little changed in August, according to the recent data from the labor department, as the “slow-hire, slow-fire” job market continues. Data from private employers released by the payroll firm, ADP, earlier this week had painted a much rosier picture of the labor market. It found that private sector hiring accelerated last month for the first time since May, carried by growth in the healthcare, education and hospitality industries, and private employers added 90,000 new jobs. The labor market has remained largely strong this year even as the US-Israel war on Iran has upped inflation, especially energy prices. Last month, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years, citing higher prices. At the time, the Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, emphasized the strength of the US labor market, which “is basically running consistent with full employment”, but he noted that “inflation is too high and has been for too long”.

US added just 29,000 jobs in September in sharp drop from last month’s gains
Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

‘Low’ to form over Bay by Tuesday, may bring north-east monsoon to South Peninsula

The building low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal may drive up a rainfall and lash initially the Sri Lanka and south Tamil Nadu coasts, says European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts. | Photo Credit: www.meteoblue.com The first clear signal of a decisive shift in the weather over the South Peninsula has emerged, with India Meteorological Department (IMD) identifying an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Thailand as a potential harbinger of the ensuing north-east monsoon. The development comes as the country draws towards the close of a south-west monsoon season marked by severe regional deficits, raising hopes of a second rainy season for the South Peninsula even as the retreating monsoon leaves its own unsettled legacy. The Bay of Bengal appears poised to set the next phase in motion. The IMD expects the circulation over the Gulf of Thailand to move westward under the influence of accompanying easterlies and emerge over the Andaman Sea by Sunday. It may deepen as a low-pressure area over the adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal by Tuesday, potentially setting in motion a fresh round of rain-bearing weather system. businessline had earlier flagged the developing circulation and arrival of easterlies over the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea. The developing system could provide the first significant building block for the north-east monsoon, which brings the principal rainy season to Tamil Nadu and parts of the South Peninsula. Its eventual arrival will depend on the evolution of the Bay system and establishment of seasonal easterly winds, but the ingredients for a transition are beginning to assemble. The line of retreat of predecessor south-west monsoon was unchanged on Friday as it cut through Supaul, Ranchi, Sundargarh, Bargarh, Bijapur, Hyderabad, Belagavi and Panjim. Conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal from some more parts of East India and the northern peninsula, as well as many parts of North-East India, over the next three to four days, the IMD said. The retreat over the mainland is coinciding with a fresh build-up of rain-producing systems over the surrounding seas. While the Bay of is preparing to host a new low-pressure area, the Arabian Sea side is also contributing to the unsettled weather pattern over the South Peninsula. On Friday evening, a trough of low pressure extended from the Comorin area to North Interior Karnataka across Tamil Nadu and South Interior Karnataka. The configuration could help draw moisture inland and sustain cloud formation triggering rain, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds across parts of the region. The wider circulation pattern is adding to the instability. The Gulf of Thailand system is being supported by cyclonic circulations over north Bangladesh and east Assam. Another trough extended from west Assam to Telangana across north Bangladesh, the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim, Jharkhand, Odisha and Chhattisgarh. Together, these features may keep the weather volatile over the South Peninsula into next week. The emerging pattern could help prepare the ground for the north-east monsoon around its normal time, although the actual onset will depend on the subsequent evolution of the circulation and establishment of seasonal flow. The IMD has forecast isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Kerala and Mahe, and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on Saturday as well. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema, and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal for six more days. South Interior Karnataka may receive similar rainfall for two more days, with activity returning on Wednesday and Thursday. Lakshadweep is expected to see isolated to scattered rain for five days from Sunday. Kerala and Mahe are in line for a more persistent spell, with fairly widespread to widespread rainfall forecast to continue for another six days. Lakshadweep, too, is likely to experience fairly widespread to widespread rain on Saturday.

‘Low’ to form over Bay by Tuesday, may bring north-east monsoon to South Peninsula
Europe
BBC Business

US ban on Canadian alcohol and dairy comes into effect as trade war drags on

A US ban on several Canadian imports, including alcohol, dairy and motorcycles, has come into effect as a trade war between the two neighbours drags on. The latest measure by the Trump administration is in response to Canada's implementation of tariffs on a range of US goods earlier this month following a breakdown in trade talks. Canada is not expected to retaliate further, with Prime Minister Mark Carney saying earlier this month that the impact the import bans will have on Canada's economy is "modest". Trade talks remain on ice, with US trade representative Jamieson Greer telling CNBC recently that President Donald Trump is "comfortable" with his current relationship with Canada. "They call us now and then and we have good conversations about potential deals. But there's no urgency on our side," Greer said of relations with Canada in an interview with the US network last week. Tuesday's trade ban applies to nearly C$1bn ($710m; £530m) worth of Canadian liquor exported to the US, as well as whey products used in protein powder. Motorcycle exports to the US will also be impacted, though Canada only sent about 5,000 motorcycles south of the border in 2025 that were worth about C$120m, according to national data by Statistics Canada, meaning the impact would be limited. The import bans were first announced by Trump in a series of executive orders signed on 8 September. In them, Trump said the measures are in response to "continued discrimination" by Canada on US dairy, automotives and alcohol. Speaking to reports on Monday, he accused Canada of "treating the United States very unfairly". Carney said earlier this month that the bans "are relatively modest measures" when compared to other trade actions the US has imposed on Canada. He acknowledged, however, that the bans will hurt certain businesses and sectors that are directly targeted. Derek Holt, an economist with Canadian bank Scotiabank, wrote in an analysis that "these actions are face-saving by the US administration, not substantive in nature and that's a positive".

US ban on Canadian alcohol and dairy comes into effect as trade war drags on
Europe
BBC Business

What's gone wrong at Nike? How the world's sportswear giant lost its mojo

Image source, Getty ImagesByMichael RaceBusiness reporter, Reporting fromNew YorkPublished1 October 2026Updated 2 October 2026 00:32 BSTIt's been a difficult few years for Nike. The largest sportswear brand on the planet, named after the ancient Greek goddess of victory, has been losing of late. Losing sales, losing customers and losing ground to its rivals. The one-time industry disruptor is now the establishment and in the middle of a tricky turnaround plan aimed at clinging on to market dominance. Nike's latest financial results show signs a turnaround strategy put in place by company veteran Elliott Hill, who was coaxed out of retirement two years ago to lead the firm, is working - but the pace of change is more marathon than sprint. However, its recovery has been dented by the loss of football star Kylian Mbappé, who ended his 20-year association with the brand last week to join fast-growing Swiss rival, On. The Real Madrid striker's departure raises the question of whether Nike can remain the top logo for not just elite athletes, but also the fans that idolise them. To be clear, Nike is still a mega brand and popular the world over. But missteps have seen hundreds of billions of dollars wiped off its stock market value as its share price tumbled by 75% over five years. Last month, Nike was ejected from the S&P 100 stock market index of the biggest blue-chip firms in the US. Matt Powell, a veteran analyst and adviser in the sports retail industry, reckons Nike has made "several strategic errors" which have been difficult to reverse, including cutting ties with retailers to sell only direct to customers online and making limited editions items more available. "The more broadly available those shoes became, the fewer people were interested," Powell says. Other self-inflicted wounds he suggests include spending research and development cash on digital operations rather than new products. "They really shut down their innovation on product. Someone jokingly said they were trying to turn Nike into eBay."

What's gone wrong at Nike? How the world's sportswear giant lost its mojo
Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

Kia Sorento: Big Deal

Your NRI cousins know exactly what the Kia Sorento is. And no, they probably didn’t buy it because it was fun or extraordinary in any way. They bought one for being a no-brainer. There’s almost nothing sensational about a Kia Sorento and that’s a very good thing. Cars that don’t try to grab headlines with some fancy bit of tech or ostentatious performance claims are generally keepers. Think Corolla Altis, Camry, Accord and CR-V — that’s the kind of car the Sorento is. Internationally proven, dependable to an appliance-like degree, sensible, large and most adaptable to every role you can assign it. Just don’t try bragging about it at, say, an alumni meet. In India, we expect the Sorento to primarily challenge the likes of the Mahindra 7XO and the Toyota Innova HyCross, but it also has competition from the age-old but eternally reliable Crysta. If you get imaginative, you might even be distracted by the compellingly well-equipped (and cheaper) Kia Seltos or, for that matter, the Skoda Kodiaq! The Sorento is larger than all of these cars, by the way. Photographs don’t tell you how large the Sorento is. At 4815 mm in length, it’s longer than the HyCross (4755 mm), 7XO (4695 mm) and the Kodiaq (4699 mm) and is slightly wider than all of these, too. The familiar Kia nose is decidedly ‘SUV’, while from the rear it appears more like a crossover with its curved C-pillar. The sides are flat and featureless, and could have done with a bit more muscle to go with either end. The roof rails do add an outdoorsy flavour to the proceedings, fortunately. Whether you consider it an SUV or a crossover, the Sorento is a really likeable design. You can have a Sorento with either a 1.6-litre petrol-hybrid motor or a 2.2-litre diesel; for this story, we’ll focus on the former. It boasts healthy specs, with 177.5 bhp and 27 kg-m (the electric motor adds 64.1 bhp/27 kg-m) and a 6-speed torque converter automatic being the only gearbox on offer. Our test car also came equipped with all-wheel drive, which you can only have on the top-spec HTX/HTX (A) variants. Depending on who you are, you may find the Sorento hybrid’s performance ample or conservative, but it isn’t exciting — fair enough, too. What it unmistakeably is, is crisp. It feels refined, responsive and quite relaxing in most scenarios, which goes with the Sorento’s ‘grown-up’ personality. The automatic gearbox complements the hybrid’s performance, and what you get as a result is an extremely well-behaved driving experience that works comfortably in the city and out on the highway. The diesel, just to set context before we elaborate on it in another story, is more powerful and feels noticeably punchier although it lacks the hybrid’s quietness. Unstressed, poised and with sufficient power reserves, the Sorento hybrid powertrain feels like an ideal highway companion even though its performance isn’t inspiring. Not everyone wants their family crossover/SUV to do sports-car things, right? If you agree, you’ll find a lot to like about the Sorento in hybrid form. Okay, you can drive it aggressively once in a while — it certainly has enough to make expressway-speed overtakes seem easy — but that’s not the inherent frame of mind the Sorento puts you in. The cabin contributes hugely to this state of mind, too. Oh, it’s an effortlessly plush interior, not necessarily chintzy or overdone (fortunately). You get an inherent sense of space and light, and nothing appears or feels substandard. The ergonomics for the driver are spot-on, the twin curved display doesn’t feel excessively large and is neatly integrated and, courtesy the light-toned interior upholstery, the Sorento appears inviting and, in fact, larger than it already is! The steering wheel feels premium to hold and the controls mounted on it feel tactile and intuitive to operate. The stalks behind it are likeably hefty, too. There’s a touch panel below the central AC vents on the dashboard that, rather cleverly, you can switch to operate and fine-tune either the climate control or the infotainment functions. It’s a small (almost missable) but thoughtfully done element by Kia. The dash flows into a neatly executed centre console which features controls for the seat ventilation (rear passengers get their own door-mounted switches), a wireless charging pad, two cupholders, the drive selector (a thing of beauty, even if obviously inspired) and, lastly, the drive mode selector. There’s a spacious armrest, too, which features an equally generous stowage bin underneath. The door pad is almost entirely leatherette-padded and features chunky grab handles (a bit Mercedes-Benz in look and feel) although, oddly, your knee (as the driver) constantly grazes against a hard plastic surface, which may get uncomfortable over a long driving day. I liked the massage function which, though not very intense, does a tailbone pulse long-distance drivers will really appreciate. In other news, outward visibility is really good! The middle row, offered with captain seats in the top-spec variants, is somewhat unconvincing despite what its appearance suggests. Yes, it’s quite well-loaded; there are manual sunshades, individual cupholders, Type-C charging ports and seat ventilation but the floor is a bit too high-set — even on the diesel! If you’re 5’7” or shorter, you may not find this to be a concern area, but taller folks will be starved for decent underthigh support. Space is, of course, ample — more than you’ll really ever need — but the high floor eats into what could have been a terrific, perhaps best-in-class backseat experience. You do get ‘boss’ mode controls on the co-driver’s seat, easy to access from the middle row, and only at full stretch can you find some underthigh support. The third row can accommodate small-sized adults; you get vents, high-quality blower controls, charging ports, cupholders and storage cavities on either side, but it still is a space best left to kids, at least for longer periods. Even better, you can fold the seats flat to create an enormous amount of boot space and what you have, as a result, is a mini-Carnival. On a different note, the spare wheel, while mounted on the underside, still is a space-saver!

Kia Sorento: Big Deal
Europe
BBC Business

'It could cost me £10k but I need the money now': Why Gen Z are opting out of pensions

Until early September, Hassan Nassar, 26, was saving around £430 every month into his NHS workplace pension. But the trainee GP, who works in the West Midlands, says he was "really cash strapped" and decided to stop putting money aside for around "six to 12 months". He needs the money to help take care of a sick family member, save for his first home and cover rent and student loan repayments. But he's aware there is a cost to opting out, estimating he could lose between "£5,000 and £10,000" in future retirement income due to the decades of compound interest he will miss out on by not saving now. "People will say, you're silly, look at what you'll be missing out in the future," he tells the BBC. "But I need to look at what I'd be losing now if I didn't opt out." All employees will be automatically enrolled, external in a workplace pension if they are aged 22 or above and earn over £10,000, although there are exceptions. A percentage is taken directly from the worker's pay - usually around 5% - with tax relief added on top, and the employer must also pay a minimum contribution on top. But a growing number of Gen Z and millennials are opting out of these schemes due to cost-of-living pressures and the government has warned they could be on track for lower private pension incomes than people retiring today. That is a problem, because while most people in the UK will eventually get a state pension, it only provides a minimum level of retirement income and many will rely on a private pension to supplement it. Image source, Guido Mieth via Getty ImagesHassan says he was paying 10.7% of his gross earnings each month into his workplace pension, while the NHS contributed a substantial amount on top. But unlike some employers, the NHS doesn't allow staff to reduce their contributions when times are hard. Overall, however, he is confident he will have enough to retire on at the end of his "30-40" year career and is determined to opt back in to his pension as soon as he can.

'It could cost me £10k but I need the money now': Why Gen Z are opting out of pensions
Europe
BBC Business

The wealthy Cuban Americans ready and waiting for Havana to fall

At the lavish home of one of Miami's top plastic surgeons, overlooking the Biscayne Bay, some of the wealthiest Cuban-American families in Florida have gathered. They are there to thrash out their vision of Cuba's future at the fourth meeting of the newly created Cuban-American National Chamber of Commerce (CANCC). Rum in hand and Rolexes on wrists, this is Miami's old money. People with well-recognised Cuban-American surnames – like Bacardi and Babun – chat around the pool about the lamentable state of the island's economy, and share titbits of gossip about the latest political rumblings. "The intention of this evening is to gather under one roof the most prominent Cuban-American entrepreneurs in Miami-Dade County," says CANCC president Juan Omar Sixto, "and the objective is to be in Cuba once the regime falls". This influential community of Cuban exiles has detested the Communist-run government ever since the late revolutionary leader Fidel Castro expropriated their lands and nationalised their families' companies after taking power in 1959. And they have wielded their political and economic clout in Florida over the years to shape Washington's policies towards their homeland. Sixto fled the island as a teenager. Now a real estate developer in his early 80s, his organisation is drafting plans for what he calls "the day after" in Cuba. The CANCC has created a proposal for a Cuban Stock Exchange and formed committees on everything from energy infrastructure to food security. Countless documents and logistical plans have been drawn up by interest groups over the decades, some of them more sober and measured than others. The difference now, insists Sixto, is the Trump administration's push to force total change on the island. And he says they have the ear of some high-profile contacts including people close to the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. "Together with deliveries of humanitarian aid and medical supplies, we'd go and do business in Cuba right away," says Sixto. In the face of Washington's "maximum pressure" campaign on Cuba, the island's leadership recently announced 176 economic liberalisation measures. The Cuban President, Miguel Díaz-Canel, said they were "to advance the defence of socialism, to support and widen social justice".

The wealthy Cuban Americans ready and waiting for Havana to fall